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Cig I think you are missing my point. Yes things are slowing down, even here in the east valley of Phoenix. I happen to think it is a good thing especially dealing with buyers. I hate telling a client that they have 15 minutes to make the largest financial decision of their life (for most people) and they better come in over the asking price and not worry about the appraisal if they want the home. That is exactly what was happening here. Prices are definately leveling off and market time increasing. people can now negotiate the selling price. Does this mean I will lose my job? Hell no. Does this mean some will? You betcha. Hopefully it will be the non professional people that just show up at an occupied residence wanting to show it without having any knowledge of what they are showing. Does the slowdown mean an end to appreciation? No, it will go back to a reasonable amount, not the 40+% we were seeing here. Del Webb Anthem is building 4500 homes and other builders are bringing the total to almost 9K between Queen Creek and Florence Az. Sales will start in Feb. Don't know where that is? You will. What is Calif. doing? I don't care, because most of my buyers are from there. Market analysts? Just like real estate agents, a dime a dozen and more opinions than the moles on Larry the Cablemans sister. I just closed a deal on a new home for a couple from Downey. They sold the 870 sq. ft. 2 bed 1 bath home they had lived in for 27 years for 360K!!! Paid cash for 1650 sq. ft. 3/2/2 in Power Ranch, Gilbert area for under 300K. Real Estate market bubble burst? My thinking is more like a correction, and that's not a bad thing. Like I said before, if you have a solid financial plan that does not include using your "equity" to finance toys, you have nothing to fear. Interest only loans? Depends on what your plan is. Neg am loans? Unless your home is paid for and you are 75 years old, I can't see the advantage there. and just as an aside, I sold homes in Havasu also and 98% of my buyers were from California. Not all RE agents are out for the quick buck, some of us do this because we enjoy the changing market and conditions, not to mention selling a home to people that we know they can afford and will bring repeat business our way because we didn't try to sell them on something they can't afford. Timing is everything and when you are paying attention to whatever your investment strategy or portfolio is, you make the decision you have to make. Blanket assumptions don't cover the whole bed sometimes. Anybody need a golf course home? I have 3 listed right now.
(sneak that in there)
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Isn't this what always happens? The economy is like a sign wave... It is reactive to many things.. Buckle down (for those whom know how) hang on and the decreases will pass... No big deal.. Unless you did something stupid with your equity..
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the ones who buy a house now are the ones who are going to take a bigger hit.They will be paying prop taxes for the purchase amount no matter what the house is worth,ones with int only loans or adj.might see a big increase in a payment they can barely afford now.IMO.There area lot of high dollar toys bought with equity and they have to paid someday the ones i talk too who bought like this say they aint worried the market is strong and wont go down.
I bought my house in 4-2000 and it was 190k then for a 1200 sf 3 bedroom.It is now just over 500k.I have refid but only for 250k (new pay off) pay off debt,boat,toyhauler,motorcycle.I plan on being here a lonnggg time so i aint worried and my payment now is what i was paying originally 8 percent vs 6.6%intrst rates.Alot of overpriced homes in OC if you ask me including mine!!
It does go in cycles if you hold on long enough you really wont lose but makin the payment is another game.When it burst there will be some big losses
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It seems obvious a correction is coming. If the median family income is 60k, well they definatly cant buy a home. I make about double that and would be scraping buy if i chose to buy an extremely overpriced averarge home (550k range) without "creative financing". Anyone who thinks it wont is very optomistic. If the market doesnt correct say goodbye to the american dream, because the average or even above average income family will not be able to buy there first home! If this is the case maybe i should invest in trailer parks since thats all the new generation will be able to afford!!
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Raised in rancho 27yrs. ALWAYS looking for an opportunity.I just want to stop renting in Pomona.But 425k in upland for 766 sq/ft built in 1950 somthing, please. Its just doesnt make sense, Ill need to take home like 6500 a month. This house and all the others like it will be 320k, still rediculous, but affordable. And I will be able to pick and choose like the old days.
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I Feel Sorry For The Suckers That Paid 500,000 To Live In Pacus (pacioma).
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This thread is crazy
First if u can afford something and ya want it buy it
will real estate go up and down -----yes
do boat prices go down --- not in my life so far
will real estate prices in LHC go down--- not a focken chance
lake property in LHC will always be in demand
will the prices in LHC grow as they have recently-- not right away as money in California is getting tighter.
If ya can buy a sled for 75k plus ya better believe most will want a weekend stay toy.
Summit Karl is right as long as ya can buy a lot or build a house in LHC it will happen
Now if ya need help please call me. I am now entering the 5th season TAX SEASON call me if ya need help
ps HAPPY FOCKEN NEW YEAR
FOCKER, CPA
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CB, I can agree with most of your last post...
Focker, Talk to me a year or two from know and we will see what the market in LHC is doing. Like I said before, as California goes so will Havasu. Prices are already seeing a decline here in So.Cal. A lot of people are living off equity and will be able to stretch it for a while so I think it might take that long for some people to be hurt. I don't think a lot of those people though will be able to stretch it until the market cycles again. My.02
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On a similar subject, I think a lot of people (more than most could imagine) are using their equity to buy depreciating assets such as boats. When I bought my first Mach 26 in early 2000 it was a big deal to have a 100k boat. Roll up in the same boat now and people won't even take a second look at you. I don't think everyone all of a sudden started making the income to afford these toys, rather i think they have cashed equity like it was a bank account. When their ARM's are up and they have to re-fi at a higher rate they are going to be in trouble.
Same goes for the vacation homes. I bought my place out there in early 2000 and at the time I only knew two other people that owned vacation homes. You would be hanging at the sandbar and people would ask what hotel you were staying in. Now everyone ask where your house is. Some of the people I know that have bought homes out there can't afford them and are hoping for the market to keep going up and are living on equity from their California homes right now. I think you will see a lot of changes at the lake in the next few years...
Happy New Years!!!
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On a similar subject, I think a lot of people (more than most could imagine) are using their equity to buy depreciating assets such as boats. When I bought my first Mach 26 in early 2000 it was a big deal to have a 100k boat. Roll up in the same boat now and people won't even take a second look at you. I don't think evryone all of a sudden started making the income to afford these toys, rather i think they have cashed equity like it was a bank account. I think you will see a lot of changes at the lake in the next few years...
Chris, I completely agree with this post...I'm guessing we will see a drastic change at the lake over the next few years...blower motors will be less prevelant, 200k-500k boats will be fewer and hopefully insurance prices will drop too, they better or I'm buying a deck boat or worse... a V ;)
