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Economist: Forget Polls; Bush Easily Wins
By E&P Staff
Published: August 11, 2004
NEW YORK For all you pundits and political reporters out there who think the Iraq war will have a major influence on the fall election, or who think the Bush-Kerry race is a toss-up, Yale University economist Ray C. Fair has a message for you: forget both. Iraq won't matter and Bush will win in a landslide.
In an interview to be published in next Sunday's "New York Times Magazine," Fair told Deborah Solomon, "My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5% of the two-party votes ... the chances that Bush loses are very small."
Fair, who claims to be a Kerry supporter, is described by the Times in the Aug. 15 issue as being known for creating an econometric equation that "has predicted presidential elections with relative accuracy." His most recent book, in fact, is titled, "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things."
How does he explain media expectations of a close race? Polls are "notoriously flaky this far ahead of the election," he said, while his model has allegedly proven accurate to within 2.5%.
Economic growth and inflation are really the only things that matter in a presidential race, he argues, with the current war and social issues such as gay marriage having negligible impact.
Asked if his prediction will boost Bush's prospects, Fair replied, "If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong."
Sorry for the poli thread. :p
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There you go stirring the pot again :D
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Although I hope this is true, I believe it will be as close as the last election, making everyones vote critical. I really like President Bush, but I wish he would make closing our boarders a higher priority.
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Been offline all day and I step into this caca;) Double or nothing, I'll pass as we have a very solid bet as we speak. But, I can tell you, no frigging way dude! You need a drug test :eek: if you believe that crapola! :frown: I'm surprised at you OG, I dind't expect you to be pulling a CArbonmarine cut and paste job! We leave that for Mr. Sensation (AKA Carbonmarine) :D .
BTW, what county do you live in? I'll need to obtain voter reg cards for ya! :D
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I figured if we doubled the bet and I got half of what I was owed, I would be cool with that. Seeming how I have to earn two dollars ;) to keep one.
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I figured if we doubled the bet and I got half of what I was owed, I would be cool with that. Seeming how I have to earn two dollars ;) to keep one.
similar to supply side economics and the trickle down theory? Sounds more like fuzzy math to me! :D
