Who still thinks the housing market has not popped?

[YeLLowBoaT]

In my neck of the woods I would say a 5-15% drop in house prices is just about right. Which is good( atleast for this area) the prices were just a joke.
I really think the "bubble" will burst when all these ppl that bought there homes for outrages price, start to defalt on thier loans. Most ppl that have bought homes in the last few years are ONE MONTH away from losing every thing. Think I am wrong??? how much to you have in your "rainy day fund"?
Could you pay your bills next month if you lost your job monday? Now I don't want that to seem as attack, I am just saying that almost every 1 would be skrewed if lost our jobs. I know I could maybe make it a month but thats about it.

[totenhosen]

I'd like to see that stat--10% off? As in 10% decline--no way. Maybe in a few isolated neighborhoods, but no way market wide. Ask him for his source.
She was talking about the $650k+ market. Her source would be experience in the field of selling 10+ homes a month. She said you might not see the 10% difference in price yet because of seller concessions which do not show up on the final price.
Example would be lets say two similar homes are for sale. One closed in June for $700k. Now people across the street list their home for $700k in November. They end up selling the home for $675k. Only a 4% decrease for arguments sake. Not much difference on the surface when you compare them for MLS stats. But other factors may be involved such as seller pays a portion of closing costs and gives the buyer an allowance of $10k for upgrades. This was unheard of in the summer but is now becoming common place in the market in this price range.
Allowances and seller paid points do not reflect in the MLS data which can skew the numbers.

[ROZ]

define bubble bursting.. Correction to 5 to 8 % annual increase in housing vs the oil industry type increases housing became acustom, or California falling into the ocean ?

[WYRD]

Hopefully the market will hold strong until Jan. so I can list my house for sale

[Outnumbered]

She was talking about the $650k+ market. Her source would be experience in the field of selling 10+ homes a month. She said you might not see the 10% difference in price yet because of seller concessions which do not show up on the final price.
Example would be lets say two similar homes are for sale. One closed in June for $700k. Now people across the street list their home for $700k in November. They end up selling the home for $675k. Only a 4% decrease for arguments sake. Not much difference on the surface when you compare them for MLS stats. But other factors may be involved such as seller pays a portion of closing costs and gives the buyer an allowance of $10k for upgrades. This was unheard of in the summer but is now becoming common place in the market in this price range.
Allowances and seller paid points do not reflect in the MLS data which can skew the numbers.
MLS data is input by agents and allowances and concessions offered are nearly always on the table for all with access to see. The public record data is the data that will not show the concessions. I think you may be a little misinformed. Read the article I posted up above, I am certain this is where she got her stats. Be careful preaching doom and gloom if you can't quote stats to back it up. There is no 10% decline in prices, period. Agents talk out their ass sometimes and I would be sure to check up on any stats you hear from them.

[totenhosen]

MLS data is input by agents and allowances and concessions offered are nearly always on the table for all with access to see.
Since when does an agent input all the concessions that a seller is willing to give? Talk about a disservice to their client. Wouldn't that make negotiations meaningless?
The public record data is the data that will not show the concessions. I think you may be a little misinformed. Read the article I posted up above, I am certain this is where she got her stats. Be careful preaching doom and gloom if you can't quote stats to back it up. There is no 10% decline in prices, period. Agents talk out their ass sometimes and I would be sure to check up on any stats you hear from them.
Here are all the stats I need. http://thehousingbubble2.blogspot.com/
I am not as bearish as these people but somewhere in between.

[Jeanyus]

Last spring, when pricing a home in Northern Ca. you could take a comparable home that sold within 30 days, and add 10 %. Now you have to take the comparable home price from 30 days, and dont add to it.Last spring houses were taking on average, 28 days to sell now, they take 32 days.
Not much of a bubble burst, more like the bubble deflating a little.
Quote from Jeff Culbertson, 8/11/05, Chief Operating Officer, Western Region, & President of Coldwell Banker Residential, Sacramento/Tahoe, Ca. "Properties that are priced at "the last closed sale" appear to be getting a lot of activity in the $450-$750K price range. Below $450k is still hot. Above $750K is our market of challenge. Homes in this price range need to be priced and marketed aggressively. Exposure will bring qualified buyers, but the home needs to show well and be priced well. Our sellers need to understand that an unwise position to put themselves into is one where they follow the market, rather than lead. This doesn't mean that our sellers should under price their homes, it simply means that they should not attempt to "test the market"."

[FREIND OF AA AND TA]

Trust me ont this!! The bubble has not popped. The prices are just stablizing a tad and that could just be the holiday crap! I have closed 9 escrows this month and the phone is still ringing off the hook. There is no real signs of prices going down as a whole. Certain areas are up and some down. This is only my observation for Santa Clarita, Just north of LA.

[Outnumbered]

Since when does an agent input all the concessions that a seller is willing to give? Talk about a disservice to their client. Wouldn't that make negotiations meaningless?
No, it would not. If you have spent any time in the MLS when concessions are prevalent, you will see things like "seller is willing to help with closing costs" or "seller may carry back a second" or "seller will provide an allowance for new carpet" etc. The fact is that most lenders will not allow more than a 3% concession in a deal anyway so there is no 10% concession behind the scenes unless they are paying cash or with hard money, but then that scenario kind of defeats the purpose of the concession. So even assuming that every deal has a 3% concession that we supposedly do not know about, we are still not 10% down in price based on the stats and facts quoted in the article above. Here are all the stats I need. http://thehousingbubble2.blogspot.com/
I am not as bearish as these people but somewhere in between.
Doom and Gloomers, nuff said.

[Boatcop]

Spring and summer are the prime moving times. It always slows down in the late fall to end of winter. It may be the Holidays, or people just not wanting to brave the weather to house hunt or move this time of year. Any realtor will tell you that if you're buying, winter is the best time.
Watch what happens in the spring. I'm willing to bet that prices will be comparable, if not higher, than they've been over the past year.