Real-estate bubble

[Sleek-Jet]

... about to burst??
I heard about this first from family in Vegas.
Review-Journal article (http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2004/Oct-06-Wed-2004/business/24925676.html)
So how would you like to have just closed on a house that is now worth 3/4 of the price you paid??
Vegas is Pulte's second largest market according to the article. This will be interesting to watch.
The anylist's in the article played it down, but still, 25% is pretty dramatic.

[Propchecker]

Just keep some powder dry :cool:

[mbrown2]

I would consider 25% more than a shift.....where the supply outpaces the demand is where the burst will be felt stronger...I don't think it California will the barometer it has always been....Demand has outpaced supply since the mid 90's. Although, there will be a taper or flattening of the prices in Cali, I don't see more then a 10-15% adjustment as we are starting to see since interest rates rose earlier this year....Those other places where new home starts have significantly increased, and have outpaced demand will be the places that will feel the bubble more then others....And it would take a lot of dried up companies and people out of work before it has a significant effect on Havasu and Parker pricing...my .02 :)

[Essex502]

I still believe like most experts that a plateau and readjustment will occur - not a bursting of a bubble - without a national catastrophic economic event happening. Time will tell if I'm wrong...however...time will also increase the values regardless as long as there are people who need homes. The Las Vegas dealio as well as many parts of the country are probably due more to the prices of the homes accellerating faster than the wages. Also, a report I heard this week was stating that at least in SoCal many people are tossing there homes on the market at higher than market prices just to see if they can find someone who'll pay that price. What this is doing is flooding the marketplace. The # of homes on the market today in SoCal according to the expert interviewed is at the highest quantity in 10 years. The length of time houses are now on the market before selling is increasing due to the glut. The median and higher priced homes are slowing the most. The low end like the inner city communities of Compton are the fastest growing prices of the bunch. This expert claimed that the affordibility index was down to 17% in the Bay Area and 18% in Orange County. He mentioned the exact study in Las Vegas with the Pulte Homes having priced themselves almost out of the market.

[boatnam2]

its so funny those builders are killing it big time.it takes a few years to plan and develope a housing tract.in my neighbor hood where we have about 25 tracts going in there is nothing for sale under 450k to 550k.2 or 3 years ago when they planned on building the tracts im sure there projection was to get 230 t0 260k because thats what they were selling for then.so now there getting more then double of what they thought they were going to get.it was a deal to buy in the 909 but not anymore and i can see it dropping a little but there buying them as fast as they can build them.really a 25 percent drop is no big deal unless your buying or just bought your first home.

[THOR]

I still believe like most experts that a plateau and readjustment will occur - not a bursting of a bubble - without a national catastrophic economic event happening. Time will tell if I'm wrong...however...time will also increase the values regardless as long as there are people who need homes. The Las Vegas dealio as well as many parts of the country are probably due more to the prices of the homes accellerating faster than the wages. Also, a report I heard this week was stating that at least in SoCal many people are tossing there homes on the market at higher than market prices just to see if they can find someone who'll pay that price. What this is doing is flooding the marketplace. The # of homes on the market today in SoCal according to the expert interviewed is at the highest quantity in 10 years. The length of time houses are now on the market before selling is increasing due to the glut. The median and higher priced homes are slowing the most. The low end like the inner city communities of Compton are the fastest growing prices of the bunch. This expert claimed that the affordibility index was down to 17% in the Bay Area and 18% in Orange County. He mentioned the exact study in Las Vegas with the Pulte Homes having priced themselves almost out of the market.
Your are right. The folks in LV still have the same jobs with the same wages yet the prices are going up. Who can afford such and increase there? Not many is the answer. LV is a very strange market in terms of general biz.

[Essex502]

You know what I wonder...has the cost of building materials gone up dramatically in the last 2 years to justify the higher prices of the new homes being built? Has the construction labor costs gone up as much? Or are the builders taking added profits since the market has gone up so much?
I don't know and am curious. Anybody out there have any idea?

[THOR]

My brother works for one of the biggest GC's and I know they have to start to import some of the steel now because there is a shortage. That goes for fasteners and nails too.

[NashvilleBound]

I agree that without a major terrorist attack or catastrophy that shuts down a major artery of our economy it will be a slight adjustment...10-15%. I also feel we are WAY over due for this adjustment too.

[Ion]

I read the article referenced and it appears that Pulte got greedy and overpriced homes in a couple developments. The "adjustment" would only affect dev's in close proximity to the greedy ones. We home / property owners in and around Havasu are still sittin' pretty and will be for the forseeable future!

[CornWater]

Don't buy this B.S.
My parents live in Sun City Anthem on a very nice lot and have told me a different story. Many people have bought homes there as an investment, which caused unforeseen competition to Pulte. Pulte is tired of people buying homes from private investors and has dropped their prices enormously to rid the competition. This situation sucks for those that are in it for the short term investment, but it is only temporary, and should not effect those there for the longer haul.

[Essex502]

Don't buy this B.S.
My parents live in Sun City Anthem on a very nice lot and have told me a different story. Many people have bought homes there as an investment, which caused unforeseen competition to Pulte. Pulte is tired of people buying homes from private investors and has dropped their prices enormously to rid the competition. This situation sucks for those that are in it for the short term investment, but it is only temporary, and should not effect those there for the longer haul.
A close friend of mine has a 4,700 square foot home in the Anthems and it's gorgeous! Great place. Yep..management at the Anthems is pushing my friend to buy and build another home for investment purposes. Builders are greedy too.