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View Full Version : Housing market slump ending??



riverroyal
12-27-2006, 04:51 PM
CNN just said it might be.Market went up 3.4 % in november.Sure its not much,but it went UP not down,and that was november,usually a bad month

Ziggy
12-27-2006, 04:53 PM
CNN just said it might be.Market went up 3.4 % in november.Sure its not much,but it went UP not down,and that was november,usually a bad month
Probably nationally, the western states still appear to be in a funk.

Cole Trickle
12-27-2006, 04:54 PM
CNN just said it might be.Market went up 3.4 % in november.Sure its not much,but it went UP not down,and that was november,usually a bad month
The housing market will follow the same trend as mortgage rates.
Rates have been falling and are supposed to continue to fall until Feb.
If/when they go up the housing market will go down/slump again.

riverroyal
12-27-2006, 04:54 PM
Id buy right now on the west coast,if I had your money

YeLLowBoaT
12-27-2006, 04:55 PM
Its not over yet... Atleast not in CA.

Outnumbered
12-27-2006, 05:26 PM
The housing market will follow the same trend as mortgage rates.
Rates have been falling and are supposed to continue to fall until Feb.
If/when they go up the housing market will go down/slump again.
Bingo

totenhosen
12-27-2006, 05:29 PM
Just the beginning of it. Even the NAR is predicting houses prices to fall through 2007.

essexjet
12-27-2006, 05:30 PM
The housing market will follow the same trend as mortgage rates.
Rates have been falling and are supposed to continue to fall until Feb.
If/when they go up the housing market will go down/slump again.
Yes they have been fell but the true test will come in March when the Fed's cut the interest rate. If that doesn't happen then hard time come.

4DAY4PLAY
12-27-2006, 05:33 PM
No

Mandelon
12-27-2006, 05:34 PM
I think there will be a return to a more normal market. Don't forget that the past 5 years have been an incredible anomoly in residential real estate. It won't go back to big year over year returns like we recently had except in limited markets.
People are buying, and are getting decent deals. But there is more supply demand and downward pressure will continue until they equal out. Lots of folks are in over their heads, and they will be shaken out of the market.
The big banks economists expect foreclosures to accelerate and continue for several more years. But that doesn't mean the markets will necessarily be down. They are cognizant of not pushing down market prices.
Rustbelt will continue to decline, retirement areas will do better. America is aging and the number of folks retiring over the next 20 years will be amazing. Invest in those areas, New mexico, texas, AZ, florida, wherever the blue hairs go now, they will continue to go, and over time those areas will increase in price. Buy parcels on the outskirts of town....hold and rent it out to cover costs. 20 years from now you will be quite wealthy.

dumbandyoung
12-27-2006, 05:44 PM
lets see, here in so cal.. we have 9% of home selling each month.
last year the percentage was 90%. thats a 9 month supply of home on the market.. if no other homes come on the market!...which will! lol.
we have 10 times the inventory that we did the year before last.
so out of that 90% that are not selling we have about 30% of them that really must sell... so what will they do???.. they will lower price and raise sales commission to the selling agent. when you see that happen ....kaaaablam!! the goes the market. now is the best time to buy... the BEST!! good rates and great prices.. and lots and lots of home to choose from..i am selling numerous homes a month even in this slow market..i cant believe some of the deals im working for my buyers. if any one every wants to talk real estate or has a question. pm me or call
Dennis Ferncez
Century 21 Masters
626.963.9337 office
dennis.ferncez@century21masters.com

jammin
12-27-2006, 07:18 PM
Our main problem is the media predicting doom and gloom! Not that much has changed from then and now in the market place. The real problem is price point, meaning not enough buyers can qualify for the high prices of new housing. Builders are now working on smaller houses on smaller lots to get the price back into the 300s where there is a larger cross section of people that can qualify. When this happens it will build confidence in the market and real estate will get back on track. Timing? late 07 early 08.

zerotollerance
12-27-2006, 07:37 PM
All i know that here in El Dorado County, Calif along with SF area and SanJose $ per square foot (selected areas) has been rising last 3 months....super inflated areas are self leveling but IMO, real estate is long term baby, long term. Those who cashed in on short term, very lucky and hopefully did not pull out too much equity. If so, just wait it out, ya gotta live somewhere close to work.
I believe there will continue to be a demand in deepwater port areas and locations with the best-of-the-best schools.
Best of luck to all in RE.:)

Jrocket
12-27-2006, 07:41 PM
Not sure on the market,but my wife is an escrow officer and she's been working more over time now than ever before.Not sure who her builders are that she takes care of but I know she is just backed up with work for the next 6 months atleast.Poor girl has been working 6 and even 7 days a week for the last 3-4 weeks.:(

YeLLowBoaT
12-27-2006, 07:51 PM
Our main problem is the media predicting doom and gloom! Not that much has changed from then and now in the market place. The real problem is price point, meaning not enough buyers can qualify for the high prices of new housing. Builders are now working on smaller houses on smaller lots to get the price back into the 300s where there is a larger cross section of people that can qualify. When this happens it will build confidence in the market and real estate will get back on track. Timing? late 07 early 08.
you would actaully be shocked the diffrence is cost it is to had SQ footage, in most cases it does not cost that much more to build a 2000 sq ft house as it does 1500 sq ft. Granted it depends on the house, but the main cost is the land and getting all of the "hook" ups to the house ( street, side walks, sewer, gas, water, power , phone and etc.)back Spacing and sqft/ lots size can be are real bitch. In most areas a small increase in Sqft means a large change in lot size. For example in a local "private" custom home tract that I do most of the custom painting for. if you keep it under 4800 sqft you can put it on a 1/3 acre, but if you are 4801 sqft you have to put it on a half, over 5200 and it has to be on a full acre. I've worked on house there where the diffrence to add anohter 600 sqft is only about 10k, but having to buy a bigger lot makes it 150k diffrence is price.( or did... they have not built any there since the market went down hill)

socalmofo
12-27-2006, 08:55 PM
lets see, here in so cal.. we have 9% of home selling each month.
last year the percentage was 90%. thats a 9 month supply of home on the market.. if no other homes come on the market!...which will! lol.
we have 10 times the inventory that we did the year before last.
so out of that 90% that are not selling we have about 30% of them that really must sell... so what will they do???.. they will lower price and raise sales commission to the selling agent. when you see that happen ....kaaaablam!! the goes the market. now is the best time to buy... the BEST!! good rates and great prices.. and lots and lots of home to choose from..i am selling numerous homes a month even in this slow market..i cant believe some of the deals im working for my buyers. if any one every wants to talk real estate or has a question. pm me or call
Dennis Ferncez
Century 21 Masters
626.963.9337 office
dennis.ferncez@century21masters.com
You are giving a bad name to Realtors with your great grammar and spelling. I have a hard time believing you sell any homes, let alone "Numerous" homes a month. Are you some High Producing Realtor's runner/assistant or something?

Outnumbered
12-27-2006, 10:22 PM
You are giving a bad name to Realtors with your great grammar and spelling. I have a hard time believing you sell any homes, let alone "Numerous" homes a month. Are you some High Producing Realtor's runner/assistant or something?
Don't sugar coat it:D
Hey, if this guy can sell $1m homeshttp://www.lakehavasuislandhomes.com/headshotforlakehomes.gif, anybody can. :eek: :eek: :eek:

SHOTKALLIN
12-28-2006, 12:25 AM
he looks like a service station attentdant

callbob4homes
12-28-2006, 06:55 AM
I think there will be a return to a more normal market. Don't forget that the past 5 years have been an incredible anomoly in residential real estate. It won't go back to big year over year returns like we recently had except in limited markets.
People are buying, and are getting decent deals. But there is more supply demand and downward pressure will continue until they equal out. Lots of folks are in over their heads, and they will be shaken out of the market.
The big banks economists expect foreclosures to accelerate and continue for several more years. But that doesn't mean the markets will necessarily be down. They are cognizant of not pushing down market prices.
Rustbelt will continue to decline, retirement areas will do better. America is aging and the number of folks retiring over the next 20 years will be amazing. Invest in those areas, New mexico, texas, AZ, florida, wherever the blue hairs go now, they will continue to go, and over time those areas will increase in price. Buy parcels on the outskirts of town....hold and rent it out to cover costs. 20 years from now you will be quite wealthy.
Most realistic and informative outlook and statement I've read on here yet.
The "real" investors will quietly go about their business and the "wannabe investors" or profit takers, will continue to moan and groan because the easy pickings aren't there. 6 1/2% interest too high? Run along young grasshopper, 17-18% in the 70's and wages not near what you make now.
Yes, the herd will thin:idea:

My Man's Sportin' Wood
12-28-2006, 06:17 PM
SW on MMSW's computer,
Mandy is in the biz and likely see's what I'm seeing. The new homes are starting to dry up because the builder's cleaned house with some great deals, as much as $90,000 in incenteives from what I hear and I know Lennar was giving $50,000 because I damn near pulled the trigger on that deal. Resale I can only go by the people I know in that end of the market, and they are getting busy. New Construction is going to start up again after a 3 month break as my company started 3 new projects on DEC 27th with a full tilt build schedule. Listen to the guys in the biz, not the media, they are 3 months behind IMHO
As far as bad mouthing the guy who sells real estate that has bad grammer, Grammer has nothing to do with making money and its a good thing I can afford a couple secretaries, because mine sucks a$$.
SW that is MMSW has nice grammer but she sucks at making money!