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View Full Version : Not just another gas price thread...



talkinghead
06-19-2007, 08:42 PM
I took approx. 7 years of historical gas price data provided by AAA So. Cal. - you can find the data on their web site.
I punched about 50 gas price data points (from AAA So Cal) into Excel and using their statistical data package it came up with a model that would predict future gas prices.
Ofcourse the further you go out the less accurate it is, but I think it should be accurate for at least 5 years into the future. It only provides what you will be paying on average.
And in some ways the model does take into account political issues, weather, etc...that stuff is already built into the data to an extent.
And the model says:
Sometime during the spring of 2009 in So. Cal. the average gas price will be ~$4/gallon.
Actually it came up with $4.03 for May 2009 as the avg. gas price.

bigq
06-19-2007, 09:10 PM
Did you adjust for inflation?

Phat Matt
06-19-2007, 09:15 PM
I'll remember to bump this thread in May of 2009. :)

pw_Tony
06-19-2007, 09:30 PM
I remember doin a report in College a couple years ago comparing gas prices in the late '70's to the prices in 2004. With inflation figured gas was actually more expensive in 1979 than it was in 2004 if you compare what the dollar was worth then and now. So when gas is rising this much over the year it don't phase me too much... but it still sucks!

talkinghead
06-19-2007, 09:41 PM
The data does not specifically account for inflation - it's just raw data - what people paid for gas on average on certain dates (starting around 2000) in southern california.
This is where I got some of the data:
http://www.aaa-calif.com/corpinfo/fuel/index-monthly.aspx
For example, in early 2003 we were paying:
So. Calif. Avg. 1.611/gallon