Nothing is selling in Phoenix/Vegas/California Poll

[Classic Daycruiser]

Nothing seems to be selling this year. There are 6 houses on our street that have been for sale for a long time (one of them has been on the market for over a year (Northeast Phoenix). 3 of the houses have been empty for at least 6 months.
How does it look in your neighborhood?

[OutCole'd]

I've had at least 5 houses around me on the market for close to a year now. Nothing is moving here in Vegas, but no one is dropping their prices yet either. I heard 1 out of every 67 houses in Vegas is in forclosure right now.....:(

[Outnumbered]

Stuff is selling. It is just people are on crack and think their house is worth what it was in 2005 and unfortunately there are many agents out their that don't have the balls to either 1) tell them or 2) refuse to take the listing at a price 30% over market. So what you get is 6 houses for sale on the street for 6 monts with no action. The ones that are priced right don't last more than 60 days in todays market. These listings are sold by the experienced agents that tell it like it is and don't mess around with overpriced headache listings.
Oh, and yes...volume is down too:D

[YeLLowBoaT]

By me its slowed down, when from sign up one day gone the next, to a week to 2 weeks on the market. Still a few that have been for sale for a LONG time, but they are so over priced its not even funny.

[yamamoto]

I sold my house a in 6 hours. Just closed escrow this past monday. I had the realtor bring me comps of what closed, not what things were listed for. The buyer came in and we negotiated price down 2% from list price. This is a buyers market, you need to be in front of the curve if you want to sell.

[No Regrets]

moto is right- with only 1 of 10 selling right now in most of CA, price is everything.

[scooooter7]

When I talked to a realtor, he said you had to be in front of the rolling ball. Or another words, priced to sell if you wanna sell.

[PaPaG]

I've had at least 5 houses around me on the market for close to a year now. Nothing is moving here in Vegas, but no one is dropping their prices yet either. I heard 1 out of every 67 houses in Vegas is in forclosure right now.....:(
As of last week it is 1 out of every 36 now...we have had about 9 for sale within a 4 block radius and nothing is moving...they missed the boat....:eek:

[Classic Daycruiser]

It does seem like everything is about $100,000 priced to high. I'd have a hard time loosing money like that.:eek:

[yamamoto]

if you want to sell, then price your house to sell. Real estate is a very slippery slope right now with the mortgage market imploding. You need to either sell or ride it out for many years.

[Jordy]

NE Phoenix huh??? :idea:

[KREGER]

P = {rate of sell} :D
The new home communities are offering 50k in incentives to spend however you want.
Buying down the rate, upgrades, and lowering the price.
The preowned market will struggle to compete for sure ...

[Classic Daycruiser]

I read
"The real estate market will either bring the economy into a recession or out of one".

[Big Inch]

If you want to sell your house needs to be priced right and turn key so to speak. Buyers have plenty to choose from right now so obviously they would rather walk into a perfect home then something that needs maintenance. Here's a little advice for anyone who's looking to sell. In a "normal" market homes are much more likely to see offers in the first 30 days of the listing. If you price high to start then figure you will drop it if you don't get a bite then you are much less likely to sell at that price then if you had originally listed it as such. If your home sits for 30 days then you decide to drop the price to entice buyers you will then have to drop it below what would of been an aggressive listing price to begin with.

[killerbeez]

I am currently running 9 new home construction jobs for a subcontractor here in so cal.Some are moving alot faster than others.One of the builders cannot build them fast enough and want to close all 155 homes in 4 months,the job just started production 1 month ago,we have 3 months left to close 125 homes and that is just at one community.I guess they can sell homes like that for 280,000.Not bad for a brand new home,but then again it is in Perris.

[HEDJUG]

The east side is feeling the same crunch. I live a quiet little area on the Chesapeake Bay & the housing market has stalled. We have 8 new houses (a lot of homes for my area) that have been sitting for 6 months.These are 3200+/- sqft homes sitting within 1000 yards of the bay on 2+ acres. These homes are listed at $420-$460 & three of em have "for rent" signs next to the sale signs.
8 months ago, the same stlye houses were selling in 1 day for $550+.

[Mrs. 20]

The east side is feeling the same crunch. I live a quiet little area on the Chesapeake Bay & the housing market has stalled. We have 8 new houses (a lot of homes for my area) that have been sitting for 6 months.These are 3200+/- sqft homes sitting within 1000 yards of the bay on 2+ acres. These homes are listed at $420-$460 & three of em have "for rent" signs next to the sale signs.
8 months ago, the same stlye houses were selling in 1 day for $550+.
Those sound awesome! Where do you live???:)
In my neighborhood there is probably 10 house or more that have been listed for over a year. They have dropped the pricing some, but the only ones I have seen sell have been the ones that did really dramatic price drops, like $70K- $100 K

[HocusPocus]

here in the high desert seems everyday i drive down the road there are more and more houses for sale and i don't see many moving. one of the local real estate places puts up pics of some of the houses for sale, just about everyone has the words "repo" or "reduced" stamped on it. also read in the local paper that apartments are almost to capacity with waiting lists to get into them.

[westair]

if you want to sell, then price your house to sell. Real estate is a very slippery slope right now with the mortgage market imploding. You need to either sell or ride it out for many years.
If you price your house to sell now, you will regret it in two years. Wait it out
don't give in to the mass panic!!! Be smart about it ... look at history.

[Havasu1]

I live in Bay Park in San Diego, right accross from Mission Bay. All of the houses I see in my neigborhood are not moving. Most people have them way over price and the majority of them are fixers.

[Ms.Havasu]

If you price your house to sell now, you will regret it in two years. Wait it out
don't give in to the mass panic!!! Be smart about it ... look at history.
Well Said!!
I have 2 specs for sale at cost. They are beautifull with "ALL" the upgrades and are not even getting looked at. I was/am willing to lose a few grand on them just to get back my original investment. But you are right...I think I should just rent them for a year or two and then sell them when the market comes back around (It always does). I think I will be kicking myself if I just dump them. That's it...
For Rent!
Thanks for talking me into it ....I'm calling my rental agent now.
Michele

[Jyruiz]

If you price your house to sell now, you will regret it in two years. Wait it out
don't give in to the mass panic!!! Be smart about it ... look at history.
Just wondering, what happens if the market does not get any better in two years? I remember it took longer than last time around.

[Stoneman]

Just wondering, what happens if the market does not get any better in two years? I remember it took longer than last time around.
My guess is about 2012 before market starts upward again. It might not go down from here, but with all the inventory it's certainly won't go up. That's if Hilary doesn't bail out all the subprime borrower's.

[Big Inch]

I'm going to go check my crystal ball. Be back with results in a few minutes :rolleyes:

[AirtimeLavey]

My guess is about 2012 before market starts upward again. It might not go down from here, but with all the inventory it's certainly won't go up. That's if Hilary doesn't bail out all the subprime borrower's.
I've seen some stats that support this opinion, although most feel it will recover before then. The market is definitely in a bad way right now, in terms of sales volume. With the lending guidelines what they are, it's tough to get buyers into deals. Many buyers are still waiting on the sidelines, and many of the active ones think they're going to steal a short sale or think they want a foreclosure. Those deals aren't always all they're cracked up to be. We'll be coming into the slow time of the year, so don't look for much in the next few months. If you've got money and good credit, and are looking for a place to stay a while, this is your time.

[cdog]

I have a friend in Naples Florida that I spoke to yesterday. He was telling me about rents dropping due to seller/investors:D not willing to take current market price or below for their homes so they rent them out for a loss per month. Homes that used to rent for $1200 are now $700. This has happened by the 100’s. Now that the refi cash out hands are tied for Jumbo products things will be much more difficult for these so called investors.
As a Broker I would suggest 2-5% under the last sale or reasonable comp in your neighborhood. Be prepared to cut further, work on curb appeal and make the inside of your home gleam. Agent choice is a key factor. Help u smells will sit. Right now you need a professional to get the job done. We are at or over record inventory in LA, OC, IE, LV and AZ. It’s only going to get worse as we go into the holiday market with all the REO’s coming on line from arm rests and the .5% -1% rate increase in rate for a jumbo loan. Yes, 1 REO comp is no big deal but 2-3 will set the new market price in a tract. I’ve read for every .5% of rate increase to a consumer you have to reduce the price of the home by 11% to match the payment and since so few sellers are realistic and will not do so 8% of the willing buyers cannot buy at that price.
Sellers need to wake up and realize the buyers have the reins now. Basic econ 101. Supply and demand.
I own page 2!

[Havasu1]

My guess is about 2012 before market starts upward again. It might not go down from here, but with all the inventory it's certainly won't go up.
My Dad's .02. He has done pretty well as an investor in Real Estate since the late 70's (He was/is not a Realtor, he was an engineer now comfortably retired in Hawaii). Real Estate seems to have a 10-year cycle. Remember the late 80's. Real Estate hit a high then dropped in early 90's only to come roaring past the high's of the late 80's in the late 90's and early 2000 (same thing can be said for the 70's to the 80s, Interest rates in the 70's we in the double digits and the economy was not nearly as diverse as it is today). Things got pretty crazy price wise in the early 2000 mainly due to cheap money and mortgages (very creative financing). This is a wild card and I'm not sure if we will see that kind of cheap money anytime soon. Keep an eye on interest rates. If they go back up into the high 7% or low 8's (remember those numbers about six years ago), housing prices will fall, they have to. There is definitely an inverse relationship to interest rates and housing prices. If rates were to go to 7.5%-8% and housing prices dropped say 20%, that would be a good time to buy. Rates will go down and you can refinance back in the 6's. This mainly applies to investment properties. If you are looking at a primary residence and you can afford it, it is usually better to own than rent.

[westair]

Just wondering, what happens if the market does not get any better in two years? I remember it took longer than last time around.
It might have taken more than two years but it was a great payoff .... people doubled and tripled their investments. Its the people that wonder "what if"
things don't get better and just dump there house for whatever they can get
will lose. There is a time when you just hold and don't sell.

[yamamoto]

If you price your house to sell now, you will regret it in two years. Wait it out
don't give in to the mass panic!!! Be smart about it ... look at history.
Well I guess I am looking at history. Never before did we see housing prices climb at a rate much faster than median income. What fueled this rise was 1st the drop in interest rates, but then the mortgage market got real creative to do no money downs, option arm mortgages, etc. The housing affordibility index is near an all time low. Nobody gave a crap about affordibility index 2 years ago when they signed up for a teaser rate, but I think they are learning the hard way what affordibility means.
Take a look at what is costs to rent a nice house. It is about 40% to 60% of the cost of owning the property. Years ago rents were close to what mortgage payments used to be using 30 year fixed rate financing. The barrier to purchasing real estate 10 years ago was the down payment, that is why many people had to rent. Now that lending standards are tightening up, that barrier for people who don't have a down payment is going up again. The teaser rates are disappearing, interest rates are rising. These are not terrible things, but this does remove a certain percentage of buyers who would like to purchase real estate. Therefore, lower demand means lower prices ahead. Long term real estate will be one of the best investments you can own. Stocks are a great investment to own long term also, but the nasdaq peaked out at 5300 in the peak of early 2000, dropped 80%, and has been recovering for years now, but it still needs to climb 100% to reach the levels it was at 7 years ago. Fundamentals drove the stock market in the mid 90's, emotion fueled it in the late 90's, and then fundamentals broke the nasdaq in early 2000. Fundamentals drove real estate prices higher in early 2000's when interest rates dropped, ninja loans and emotion drove real estate prices higher in the mid 2000's, and finally the economic fundamentals are driving prices back to affordibilty levels once again.
I have no idea how much it will correct, but it would seem logical that a person with the AVERAGE household income should afford the AVERAGE home price with AVERAGE financing (80% ltv 30yr fixed). Today we are far from that.

[Jyruiz]

It might have taken more than two years but it was a great payoff .... people doubled and tripled their investments. Its the people that wonder "what if"
things don't get better and just dump there house for whatever they can get
will lose. There is a time when you just hold and don't sell.
I hear what you are saying and agree with most of it, but there are people who can not hold on for that long and if they do, and prices go down even more, then they will end up loosing even more money. I hope you are right, as I would hate to see anybody I know loose their home.

[yamamoto]

It might have taken more than two years but it was a great payoff .... people doubled and tripled their investments. Its the people that wonder "what if"
things don't get better and just dump there house for whatever they can get
will lose. There is a time when you just hold and don't sell.
I agree you should hold and ride it out if you can, it is home and we all need homes. We happended to outgrow our house with a bunch of rug rats running around so we wanted to make a move. Now that I am out of real estate and sitting with my equity on the side lines, I will take my time to find the property that is perfect for my family and purchase at that time. The probability I will purchase a new home at the bottom of the market is very low, but if I am patient, the inventory to choose from is increasing and the number of buyers is decreasing, I think I should do okay.

[cdog]

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/IBD-0001-19108512.htm
Rising Jumbo Rates Deal Another Blow To Housing Market
August 23, 2007: 08:05 PM EST
Aug. 23, 2007 (Investor's Business Daily delivered by Newstex) --
Rising interest rates on jumbo home loans are hitting wealthier borrowers and could take down the healthiest part of the sickly housing market, analysts said.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed jumbo loan stands at 7.4%, well above the 6.47% at the start of the year, according to Bankrate.com. That adds nearly $300 to monthly payments on a $500,000 loan.
The spread vs. conventional 30-year fixed loans has risen to 82 basis points, from 23 basis points at the start of July. Rates vary by region, from 7.87% on average in New York to 7.62% in Los Angeles and 7.2% in Philadelphia, according to Bankrate.com.
Jumbo loans are mortgages that exceed $417,000 in most states -- $625,000 in Alaska and Hawaii due to higher housing costs there.
They tend to have higher interest rates than "conforming" loans that can be guaranteed by government-backed Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) fre and Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM PRJ) (NYSE:FNM PRF) (NYSE:FNM PRI) (NYSE:FNM PRL) (NYSE:FNM PRH) (NYSE:FNM PRN) (NYSE:FNM PRM) (NYSE:FNM) fnm. But the size of the spread is highly unusual.
Until recently, high-priced markets largely had been untouched by the crisis sparked by soaring defaults on loans to borrowers with poor credit.
But mortgage lenders are having difficulty selling loans to Wall Street banks and other investors, depriving them of the cash and credit they need to fund new loans. That has pushed more lenders into bankruptcy and deprived would-be homeowners of loans.
Many remaining mortgage lenders have stopped offering subprime and other nonconforming loans like jumbos, raised rates on such loans and made it harder even for sound borrowers to get credit.
"It's not like they don't want to make loans but they're concerned about how it will affect their own financials," said Doug Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. Raising rates on jumbo loans is "a move to protect balance sheets and income statements."
Subprime loan defaults are dumping more houses onto the market and eroding home prices, especially at the low end. Analysts say higher jumbo rates could hit pricier states such as California and Florida especially hard.
"If jumbo rates stay higher for a couple months, that could have an additional adverse affect on the higher-priced markets," said William Wheaton, a professor of economics and real estate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Toll Bros. tol on Wednesday said third-quarter net profit dropped 85% as stricter lending standards hurt luxury home sales.
"During this downturn, we have experienced a much higher rate of cancellations than at any time in our 21-year history as a public company," Chairman and CEO Robert Toll said in a statement.
"Mortgage-market liquidity issues and higher borrowing rates may impede some customers from closing, while others may find it more difficult to sell their existing homes," Toll said.
WCI Communities wci, another high-end builder, on Wednesday reported a net loss in the second quarter.
Not all the news is bad. IndyMac imb said Wednesday that it is returning to the prime jumbo market.
But Countrywide, facing its own funding woes, said last Friday that it is going to focus almost entirely on conforming loans.
To ease the credit crunch, Democrats have been pushing for an increase to the conforming loan limit as well as an increase to the total value of loans that Freddie and Fannie can hold in their portfolios. They say such changes would inject much-needed cash into the market for mortgage-backed securities, helping to jump-start lending.
The House passed a bill in May that would raise the ceiling on conforming loans.
Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass, head of the House Financial Services Committee, has urged the Senate to act as well.
"It's very important for the Senate to pick up the bill," said Frank, who has scheduled a hearing on Sept. 5 to examine credit market woes.
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., also plans hearings when lawmakers return from their summer recess.
On Tuesday, Dodd met with Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson about steps to keep the lending spigot open.
Dodd said he was "disappointed" that Paulson was reluctant to lift the mortgage portfolio limits on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The Bush administration earlier this month rejected Fannie's bid to boost its portfolio above the current $727 billion limit.
Some say it's not clear that letting Freddie and Fannie buy bigger or more mortgages would be enough to ease the credit squeeze.
Many investors thought they were safe buying mortgage-backed securities that carried AAA ratings, only to find out that the collateral often contained toxic subprime loans. Now they're gun-shy.
"The real answer is the restoration of confidence among global investors," Duncan said.

[cdog]

Due to continued market volitity, effective August 24, 2007, Bank of America and Countrywide have implemented the following changes;
BANK OF AMERICA:
1) All expanded criteria products will be suspended until further notice.
Stated Income/ Stated Asset
Stated Income/ Verified Asset
2) All 80/20 financing.
COUNTRYWIDE:
1) Eliminated 100% financing on full documentation
2) Eliminated Fast & Easy documentation on Payment Advantage ARM
3) Maximum 75/75% LTV/CLTV on expanded criteria fixed rate loans with amounts greater than $417,000
4) Maximum 80/80% LTV/CLTV on non-conforming Fasy & Easy documentation
-Equity Programs/ 2nd Loans-
1) Streamline transactions with CLTV's greater than 80% require 700 credit score and 2 borrowers
2) Reduced documentation with CLTV greater than 80% require 700 credit score up to a maximum loan amount of $150,000.
Other News:
GreenPoint, one of California's top 5 lenders headquartered in California with 31 locations in 19 states will cease operations of its wholesale mortgage banking unit resulting in 1,900 job losses.
WELLS FARGO
1) Eliminated all Stated Income Investor programs
2) Eliminated all Stated Income 2nd loan products
3) Eliminated all Stated Income Stated Asset nonconforming products.
:eek:

[PaPaG]

Don't fall for the hype...it is over...market is tanking and all the real investors know it....Market should rebound at a slower pace this next time around but as it always does it will go higher....