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ThongMagnet
10-31-2007, 10:49 PM
I'm calling a top. You can play all you want, but I'm to the point where I have been way to greedy, and now I'm all cashed out (10/31/2007 was a great day to sell). I'm probably going to sit on the side lines until next fall, and just keep my job, and live modestly.
I've more than quadrupled (467%) my assets in 10 months (not including the house, it more than doubled in two years). I'm just going to hang with 3-4% for the next year.
Baby boomers retiring, mortgage problems, tight labor market, and energy & food prices going through the roof, where can we go from here? Higher??? Maybe if more overseas money keeps flowing into are stock market, but that has to stop at sometime. I remember my dad telling me "You havn't made anything until you sell"
I would have sold the house last summer, but I really like the house, and I need a place to store the boat inside

OverKill
10-31-2007, 11:35 PM
Well as my dad said to me. Some times you just need to step down in life. If your just keeping a house to store your boat. I think it might be time to take a step down a notch. IMO of course. Times are tight and are only going to get tighter.
I can' believe going to the store costs over $200.00 and your cart is only half full, and only lasts you a week or so. I said F**K it to the grocery stores last year. I buy all my fruits and vegies from the farmer on the side of the road selling out of wooden crates. Tastes fresh and costs way less.
OverKill

My Man's Sportin' Wood
11-01-2007, 05:41 AM
Well as my dad said to me. Some times you just need to step down in life. If your just keeping a house to store your boat. I think it might be time to take a step down a notch. IMO of course. Times are tight and are only going to get tighter.
I can' believe going to the store costs over $200.00 and your cart is only half full, and only lasts you a week or so. I said F**K it to the grocery stores last year. I buy all my fruits and vegies from the farmer on the side of the road selling out of wooden crates. Tastes fresh and costs way less.
OverKill
The grocery store is crazy. I can't see how my grocery bill has doubled in the last 10 years (and I don't buy formula and diapers anymore) and gas has also doubled. That's both staples going up 100% in 10 years, yet inflation only rises 1-3% a year? They are lying to us.
Last week, I didn't buy the organic stuff and I bought the cheaper hair products (1/2 the price) no beer and only stocked up on burger (4% was on sale so I bought 4 pounds). I just bought arrowhead water instead of propel and it was still $200. Oh, and the only cereal I bought at the time was store brand quick oats. I guess if we lived on Ramen and mac&cheese, I could bring it under $150, but then we'd be fat with clogged arteries. I'm waiting for the WinCo foods to open near me. I've never been into one, but I'd like to check it out. Thank goodness we don't have to live paycheck to paycheck. I don't know how some people are doing it.
And ThongMagnet, smart move. Congrats on your sale.

totenhosen
11-01-2007, 06:50 AM
I try to do all my grocery shopping at a grocery chain that markets to the latin market. My bill is easily 20%+ less. They also have a kickass butcher on site that is far better than anything at the major chains.

Havasu1986
11-01-2007, 06:53 AM
I'm calling a top. You can play all you want, but I'm to the point where I have been way to greedy, and now I'm all cashed out (10/31/2007 was a great day to sell). I'm probably going to sit on the side lines until next fall, and just keep my job, and live modestly.
I've more than quadrupled (467%) my assets in 10 months (not including the house, it more than doubled in two years). I'm just going to hang with 3-4% for the next year.
Baby boomers retiring, mortgage problems, tight labor market, and energy & food prices going through the roof, where can we go from here? Higher??? Maybe if more overseas money keeps flowing into are stock market, but that has to stop at sometime. I remember my dad telling me "You havn't made anything until you sell"
I would have sold the house last summer, but I really like the house, and I need a place to store the boat inside
Stock market is down 200 points already today. :mad:

dirty old man
11-01-2007, 07:04 AM
You picked a good day to go on the side, today, 11-1 is horrible. My broker always advises not doing what you did, may have to overrule him, although for the year I'm up about 18%, earn over 500k a year on this

bigq
11-01-2007, 07:05 AM
Well it appears that Bush will be helping to bail out the bad mortgage loans this way:
Banks would originate mortgage loans with 1% interest rates.
The Federal Housing Administration and Department of Veterans Affairs would insure the loans against loss.
The Government National Mortgage Association, aka Ginnie Mae, would buy the mortgages at par from the banks, allowing the banks to make a small profit.
Ginnie Mae, taking a sizable loss, would then sell these loans to Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) and Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs) at a discount so that the buyers would earn reasonable yields.
Fannie and Freddie would fund these purchases with low-cost, government-guaranteed debt.
Such a load that once again people that play by rules will loose out. I guess i should have bought that crap loan after all.:rolleyes:
I don't know how well this will work, but it is a safe bet they don't want the US economy tanking before the election and make no mistake that is all it is about. So I would guess you are safe until mid 2009 or so.

rodnjen
11-01-2007, 07:06 AM
All this guessing about the "top" is all well and good but it has to fit an individual's/family's plan. Timing is important, but market timing works for very few. I could sell my house for close to 3x's what I paid for it, or I can manage my debt, stay put, then buy another house in two years and rent this out. In the mean time, building cash reserves and investing long-term helps build a better asset/liability match.
I'm losing my ass on Citigroup today, but that doesn't mean I'm selling or even that I should have sold 3 months ago. Asset allocation and diversification will benefit far more people than market timing. I will hold, double down, or buy someting else.

HM
11-01-2007, 07:11 AM
I'm calling a top. You can play all you want, but I'm to the point where I have been way to greedy, and now I'm all cashed out (10/31/2007 was a great day to sell). I'm probably going to sit on the side lines until next fall, and just keep my job, and live modestly.
I've more than quadrupled (467%) my assets in 10 months (not including the house, it more than doubled in two years). I'm just going to hang with 3-4% for the next year.
Baby boomers retiring, mortgage problems, tight labor market, and energy & food prices going through the roof, where can we go from here? Higher??? Maybe if more overseas money keeps flowing into are stock market, but that has to stop at sometime. I remember my dad telling me "You havn't made anything until you sell"
I would have sold the house last summer, but I really like the house, and I need a place to store the boat inside
Good work. As the song goes....you got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, and know when to run. :D

cdog
11-01-2007, 08:32 AM
I try to do all my grocery shopping at a grocery chain that markets to the latin market. My bill is easily 20%+ less. They also have a kickass butcher on site that is far better than anything at the major chains.
I notice that as well. It's cool buying meat from a butcher who know's what they're doing. Now if I could just get'em to speak some english.:D
Coupons people! $200 bill turns into $75. Look in the sunday paper.

Stoneman
11-01-2007, 09:00 AM
You picked a good day to go on the side, today, 11-1 is horrible. My broker always advises not doing what you did, may have to overrule him, although for the year I'm up about 18%, earn over 500k a year on this
You have a broker and only get 18% a year? I think you need a new broker!

dirty old man
11-01-2007, 09:13 AM
Stoneman, I'll look into that. Any suggestions?

Stoneman
11-01-2007, 09:17 AM
Stoneman, I'll look into that. Any suggestions?
Do it yourself. Try reading the book "Rule #1" by Phil Town. After I read it, I'm up over 40% since march. Wife is up over 70%. Very easy to do.

jpeaston
11-01-2007, 09:18 AM
Thongmagnet,
Wells Fargo is paying me 5% on my checking account, you can beat that 3-4%. look around.

INSman
11-01-2007, 09:48 AM
Not a good day for Crocs, down 33% !!!!! :eek:

dirty old man
11-01-2007, 10:01 AM
but a good day for GOOG and RDS-B

LaveyJet
11-01-2007, 10:02 AM
Do it yourself. Try reading the book "Rule #1" by Phil Town. After I read it, I'm up over 40% since march. Wife is up over 70%. Very easy to do.
So what "Wonderful" companies are you looking at?

totenhosen
11-01-2007, 10:07 AM
Do it yourself. Try reading the book "Rule #1" by Phil Town. After I read it, I'm up over 40% since march. Wife is up over 70%. Very easy to do.
What is your avg. rate of return over 5 years?

2Driver
11-01-2007, 10:59 AM
Market timing with your whole portfolio is hard and risky. Commissions, income tax and capital gains all come into play. Then, where do you put that money? If you need it for something specific or are about to retire and are changing your portfolio great.
Otherwise, for the long haul I fail to see the top of the market given the below history of the dow.
http://***boat.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=42311&stc=1&d=1193943440

Stoneman
11-01-2007, 11:09 AM
So what "Wonderful" companies are you looking at?
Been in AAPL, RIMM, SIGM, and CMG so far. Looking into BOOM, and CTSH currently

Stoneman
11-01-2007, 11:11 AM
What is your avg. rate of return over 5 years?
Just started in March of this year. so I don't have a 5yr history. But I've already beat my 5yr history of the Mutual funds I was in.

It's Only Money
11-01-2007, 11:17 AM
Frankly I disagree about sitting on the sidelines in fluctuating markets. Days like today I am buying. Buying solid companies where the ignorant investors that cash out in panic (present company excluded) TODAY drive the price down. There are plenty of these excellent companies that can be bought on the cheap when investors over react. I've made plenty of money for my clients over the years not "timing" the market but taking advantage of irrational selling.
Good luck folks in trying to time.
Solid dividend paying defensive stocks and other excellent companies will be around after the fall.
NOTE: We are irrevocably headed to a recession, prepare for it.

3 daytona`s
11-01-2007, 11:20 AM
who is a Casino host at Harrah`s was invited to dinner at the Range Steakhouse last Sat. night. The "PLAYERS" who own RE in Calif. Laughlin,Bullhead and Havasu were talking and evaluating things in these areas.Allen just sat and listened to what he described as the most depressing prediction he has ever heard.They feel not close to the bottom and may be 2010-2012 to rebound.This oil/fuel is screwing EVERYTING up and affecting everyones buying power and their outlook on the future.They all agreed if fuel does go to $5.00 a gal. the recession will be so devistating by that time,it is impossible to predict the consequences.I sure hope the "EXPERTS" are wrong.

Stoneman
11-01-2007, 11:27 AM
who is a Casino host at Harrah`s was invited to dinner at the Range Steakhouse last Sat. night. The "PLAYERS" who own RE in Calif. Laughlin,Bullhead and Havasu were talking and evaluating things in these areas.Allen just sat and listened to what he described as the most depressing prediction he has ever heard.They feel not close to the bottom and may be 2010-2012 to rebound.This oil/fuel is screwing EVERYTING up and affecting everyones buying power and their outlook on the future.They all agreed if fuel does go to $5.00 a gal. the recession will be so devistating by that time,it is impossible to predict the consequences.I sure hope the "EXPERTS" are wrong.
Sounds about right to me. at least 2012 before housing gets better. I don't see fuel going to 5.00, but maybe 4.00 can't see it staying there too long.

2Driver
11-01-2007, 12:05 PM
This mess and inventory is not going to be cleaned up and gone in 36 months

3 daytona`s
11-01-2007, 12:30 PM
Sounds about right to me. at least 2012 before housing gets better. I don't see fuel going to 5.00, but maybe 4.00 can't see it staying there too long.
much of this mess was caused by greedy people who thought that the end/payday would ever come,and it has affected so many innocent hard working people.:(

Stoneman
11-01-2007, 12:36 PM
much of this mess was caused by greedy people who thought that the end/payday would ever come,and it has affected so many innocent hard working people.:(
Biggest issue was/is lending to people who can't afford the loans. Greed on both sides. But come on, you had to see this coming for quite sometime!

INSman
11-01-2007, 02:19 PM
What goes down must (we hope) go back up !!!
Never a bad thing to take a little off the table and ring the register, but no need to panic sell. Unless you don't believe in the company you bought stock in on the fundamentals, you should have never owned the stock or should be selling it. Days like these provide more attractive "entry" points to some stocks that get beat up for little to no reason.

BoatPI
11-01-2007, 02:23 PM
I see oil as the biggest issue here. My mutals are doing fine at 23%, but oil drives everything. The service sector is in for a big boom if it hits $4.00 a gallon. Airlines will be fine it seems as it is so inexpensive to fly now compared to driving more that 1,000 miles.
I am up in Canada now at gas is 97 cents a litre, actually less that a summer trip I had when it was $1.03. Baitch is U.S dollar SUCKS!!!!!!!!!. It is worth 95 cents, less the 3% my bank nails me. That is a 20% drop in my money in 2 years.
Expect alot of europeans traveling to the god ol' USA this next year.

Stoneman
11-01-2007, 02:40 PM
I see oil as the biggest issue here. My mutals are doing fine at 23%, but oil drives everything. The service sector is in for a big boom if it hits $4.00 a gallon. Airlines will be fine it seems as it is so inexpensive to fly now compared to driving more that 1,000 miles.
I am up in Canada now at gas is 97 cents a litre, actually less that a summer trip I had when it was $1.03. Baitch is U.S dollar SUCKS!!!!!!!!!. It is worth 95 cents, less the 3% my bank nails me. That is a 20% drop in my money in 2 years.
Expect alot of europeans traveling to the god ol' USA this next year.
What's driving the price of oil is more political than economic. Oil will head down as mideast tensions ease.

My Man's Sportin' Wood
11-01-2007, 03:18 PM
What's driving the price of oil is more political than economic. Oil will head down as mideast tensions ease.
So, in about the next millenium?
Oil won't head down until one of two things happen: we find more of it here and are allowed to get it, or we find an alternative means of energy.

Stoneman
11-01-2007, 03:36 PM
So, in about the next millenium?
Oil won't head down until one of two things happen: we find more of it here and are allowed to get it, or we find an alternative means of energy.
My guess would be right after the next presidential election. Oil supply will out weight demand long after we are gone.