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bigq
03-15-2006, 09:32 AM
unless you are part of the 150% increase of foreclosures....
The press reacts to the Dataquick numbers. “Home prices in Southern California edged up to a new record in February, although they edged up to that record at the slowest pace in almost four years. The number of homes sold was the lowest in five years.”
“‘It’s numbers like these that both bubble-theorists and market cheerleaders can pounce on to make their points. Reality is more mundane. The frenzy is behind us, we’re in a new phase of the real estate cycle and what remains to be seen is how this cycle’s end game will play out. We’ll know much more when next month’s figures are in,’ said Marshall Prentice.”
“A total of 19,905 new and resale Southland homes were sold last month. That was down 7 percent from 21,394 for February last year. Last month’s sales count was the lowest for any February since 2001 when 18,040 homes were sold. The strongest February in DataQuick’s statistics was in 2004 when 23,004 homes were sold; the weakest was in 1991 when 10,025 homes were sold.”
“The typical monthly mortgage payment that Southland buyers committed themselves to paying was $2,251 last month, up from $2,162 for the previous month, and up from $1,905 for February a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are about 2.7 percent above typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle.”
“The annual rate of price increase was the lowest since March 2002, when prices rose 12.7 percent to $257,000. Annual price increases have held in the mid-teens since April. ‘The prices hit a new record, but the rate of increase at which those prices hit that new record was the lowest in four years,’ said John Karevoll.”
“As the buying frenzy that drove the housing boom the last five years subsides, many home sellers are having to settle for less than their asking price. Many would-be buyers, meanwhile, remain reluctant to enter the market, looking for signs prices might come down significantly.”
“But while prices aren’t going up as quickly, real estate agents say they haven’t seen evidence of a widespread drop in prices. ‘We’re seeing prices perhaps level off a bit, but we’re not seeing a decrease in prices,’ said Kathy White, a realtor in Westlake Village, a suburb of Los Angeles. ‘We are seeing more properties on the market (and) they’re staying longer on the market.’”
“San Diego County saw the slowest rise in home appreciation, with median prices increasing 6.4 percent to $502,000.”
“Indicators of market distress are still largely absent, DataQuick reported, and foreclosure activity is edging up from its bottom, but is still low. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages has dropped significantly during the last three months. Down payment sizes are stable, as are flipping rates and non-owner-occupied buying activity, DataQuick reported.”
Also from Inman News. “In California, which has historically had few foreclosures, there was a 150 percent increase in the number of new foreclosure listings in February compared to January. ‘Foreclosure rates in the western half of the nation are shifting. States such as California and Nevada have experienced a rapid increase in foreclosure inventory over the past six months,’ said Brad Geisen. ‘This is primarily because of a decrease in investment and speculative real estate activity in those markets. That investment activity has been moving away from California and into Texas.’”

INSman
03-15-2006, 10:01 AM
Prices still rising in Ventura County and holding in Havasu, enough of this Doom & Gloom crap !! :mad:

Mandelon
03-15-2006, 10:11 AM
I heard from a lender (countrywide) yesterday that 80% of loans they did in Chula Vista over the last year were for for 100% financing..... :rolleyes:

Kilrtoy
03-15-2006, 10:15 AM
holding in Havasu, enough of this Doom & Gloom crap !! :mad:
Not to sure about that!!!!!!!!

bigq
03-15-2006, 10:16 AM
I heard from a lender (countrywide) yesterday that 80% of loans they did in Chula Vista over the last year were for for 100% financing..... :rolleyes:
How the hell can you make a payment on 100% loan when the average house is 400k? Is their that many people making over 150k a year?

Mandelon
03-15-2006, 10:17 AM
Interest only, maybe neg am......Its like $600 a month per hundred thousand

flat broke
03-15-2006, 10:23 AM
I heard from a lender (countrywide) yesterday that 80% of loans they did in Chula Vista over the last year were for for 100% financing..... :rolleyes:
Thats not the scary part. Most of their 100% program is semi stable as far as payments are concerned. The bigger portion of the mortgage market to watch will be the folks who bought with some down but utilized a Neg Am in the first position. They have been beaten with rate/payment increases over the past few years and now that the appreciation is slowing, they aren't going to be able to refi using a new appraisal to better their equity position and buy some breathing room. People who have been surviving using their "minimum payment" or deffered interest option are running out to 110% in less than 3 years. For a lot of folks that means there will be some tough choices comming up.
Cheap and easy money fueled the fire of the boom and now that rates are on the rise and some lenders are looking to mitigate the risk in their portfolio with more fully am'd and traditional I/O products, people wont be as quick to bid stuff up because the monthly payment consequences will force them to think it through.
The sky isn't falling, but the market isn't correcting. Worst case scenario for a lot of folks is that they can't tap their equity for frivalous expenditures like they have been for the past few years. Unless we see another industry collapse like the aerospace industry collapse in So Cal in the mid/late 80s there won't be the catalyst to force people to flood the market with inventory like back then. We will see forclosure rates rise in the near term, but not to some catasrophic point where you'll be buying houses for their listing price of 6 years ago.
just my .02
Chris

INSman
03-15-2006, 10:56 AM
Not to sure about that!!!!!!!!
I am sure about what my Washita house is currently in escrow for !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!

phebus
03-15-2006, 11:49 AM
I guess I'd better raise my asking price. :messedup:

Kilrtoy
03-15-2006, 06:47 PM
I am sure about what my Washita house is currently in escrow for !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!
That would be???????????

SummitKarl
03-15-2006, 06:52 PM
I am sure about what my Washita house is currently in escrow for !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!
YEA....Sweet................congrats..........NEXT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :)

INSman
03-15-2006, 08:04 PM
YEA....Sweet................congrats..........NEXT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :)
Exactly ... Was talking with Michele today, do not want to give up that 3rd bathroom nor the current view and such I have on Kiowa, would however like to have a very lenghty garage for boat+truck !!

INSman
03-15-2006, 08:05 PM
That would be???????????
Plenty of profit !!!! :D

mbrown2
03-15-2006, 08:12 PM
I heard from a lender (countrywide) yesterday that 80% of loans they did in Chula Vista over the last year were for for 100% financing..... :rolleyes:
Don't believe everything you hear......look at the secondary market and pools of loans that make up the Mortgage Back Securities they sell....pretty balanced with good paper.......Countrywide balances it risks...they are in it for the long haul not a fly by night!..

Holland
03-15-2006, 08:15 PM
Kel and I listed our house on Craigslist.com... had 7 calls that day. Sold in 1/2 hour for full asking. (We did OWC Financing)
We got lucky, didn't even have to put a sign up for this house, I gotta sell one more we have, then life's even better....

Ivan Dan
03-15-2006, 09:40 PM
I guess I'd better raise my asking price. :messedup:
When you're ready to get it sold for top $$ give me a call. :crossx: :220v: :skull: :crossx:

locogringo
03-15-2006, 10:12 PM
from what I hear, big lenders are starting to set up their REO departments.
I know I have definately seen a huge increase in foreclosures.
Up in record droves

Mandelon
03-15-2006, 10:13 PM
Picked up another foreclosure rehab project today..... :cool:

locogringo
03-15-2006, 10:17 PM
Picked up another foreclosure rehab project today..... :cool:
nice , you work for the banks right?

Mandelon
03-15-2006, 10:24 PM
Yes. We specialized in REO rehabs for many years (until they disappeared, then we got into mold remediation and water damage restoration) I am liking the new REO rehabs coming back though... :cool:
We've done recent ones for emc, countrywide and a new one called AMQ. I am a bit bummed cuz our old bread and butter, FannieMae was priced out of the loan market down here and don't have much exposure this time around.
WAMU used to be a big customer too.

bullheadboater
03-15-2006, 10:30 PM
I have lurked for Years and Decided to Post. I manage a very large Foreclosure Trustee in the 8 western states and have done so for 15 years. Sorry to sa y but the sky is falling. I deal with 8 of the top ten lenders on the default side and they are patiently waiting for the crash. They know it is comeing. I have seen numbers increase over the last 6 mos and am told that my business will more than doulble in the next 6.

INSman
03-15-2006, 10:34 PM
I have lurked for Years and Decided to Post. I manage a very large Foreclosure Trustee in the 8 western states and have done so for 15 years. Sorry to sa y but the sky is falling. I deal with 8 of the top ten lenders on the default side and they are patiently waiting for the crash. They know it is comeing. I have seen numbers increase over the last 6 mos and am told that my business will more than doulble in the next 6.
All I Hear is Blah, Blah, Blah........
Nice first post :220v:

Kilrtoy
03-15-2006, 10:35 PM
Plenty of profit !!!! :D
Im happy for you, BUT HOW MUCH $$$$$$$$$

totenhosen
03-16-2006, 07:28 PM
What I find interesting is that CAR (Cal Assoc of Realtors) in their weekly emails is no longer listing the affordability index or appreciation rate. Makes you wonder??? Also my friend works for the unemployment office and has been seeing a large spike in the number of people in the mortgage and title industry that have been laid off. Not to mention the people I talk to that are in the industry.
Got this from another website. If anyone wants to address the points please do. (I hope some of you loan guys and realtors didn't over extend yourself.)
The mortgage industry, and specifically the subprime industry, has tried to implement the ‘outrun things with volume’ strategy. They kept rates low to stay competitive. The slashed profit per loan, and tried to drive volume. In the last year at the company I just left, we had 5 different comp plans. The ‘last’ comp plan was about ‘half’ of the first comp plan unless you were hitting the highest numbers which only a very few people were doing. To give you an idea, a rep used to make $4000 to $5000 for every million dollars worth of loans funded. Now, the typical rep is probably going to make $2000-$2500 for the same million dollars worth of loans funded. The problem is that the volume isn’t there for most people. I know reps there were doing 5-7 million per month consistently…and now they are barely doing 1.5 million. I know it is the ’slow’ time of the year to begin with, but I don’t see things picking up that much. Some of the reps that have been in the business for a while and that saved money, will be fine. Remember, most companies only had 3-5 reps for a region a few years ago. That grew to 15-25 reps as things were booming. The problem is that there isn’t the volume to pay that many reps the money they need to be paid to live. Look at my earlier example. 8-10 reps can all do ok when a territory is doing 30-50 million, not 10 million. (some companies will split a region into territories, that is why a territory will have less reps than a region).

buzzaro
03-16-2006, 07:38 PM
If anyone else is in construction or pays attention to new homes being built then youve probably noticed that new home construction is slowing also. Its not dead by any means, but it has definately slowed from the breakneck pace of the last few years.

77charger
03-16-2006, 08:08 PM
If anyone else is in construction or pays attention to new homes being built then youve probably noticed that new home construction is slowing also. Its not dead by any means, but it has definately slowed from the breakneck pace of the last few years.
That is one thing i have noticed.Been doing waterproofing for 12 years when i started it was very slow the past 8 has been very busy but seeing it taper off.I mainly do the remodels and custom homes for our company.I am starting to notice people are doing less and spending less.Use to be they would tear the whole bathroom apart now it is coming down to just retiling the shower if needed keeping the floor tile and rest intact.
Also the complete gut out the house remodels are becoming less too.

Havasu Cig
03-16-2006, 08:16 PM
Prices still rising in Ventura County and holding in Havasu, enough of this Doom & Gloom crap !! :mad:
Man, you really take this stuff personally... :cool: :)

xs ultra
03-16-2006, 08:31 PM
Dooms day is coming .I can't wait And when it hits bottom I will than buy.I think the market will drop $100K on the average home and more on the higher end houses.The market is just to far out of line.

BA Kurtis
03-16-2006, 08:47 PM
If you know anyone interested in moveing high desert, I have a real nice 2280 sq. ft. home in Apple Valley, pool, just remodeled last yr. price's have went down I just reduced it to 448,900.

BA Kurtis
03-16-2006, 08:57 PM
If anyone else is in construction or pays attention to new homes being built then youve probably noticed that new home construction is slowing also. Its not dead by any means, but it has definately slowed from the breakneck pace of the last few years.
I think things have just slowed down to nomal, the building boom has been CRAZY!! for the last 2 yrs. it's kinda nice thats it has slowed down a little. I dont expect new home price's to go down much and they deffinetly wont be going up. just my $.02 :cool:

Mandelon
03-16-2006, 09:11 PM
If you are losing your home, then its a crash. :cry:
All my lender contacts know its coming, its been on its way for a while. I think inland areas that are cheaper will do alright for a while longer...but those overleveraged folks will be hit when they can't keep up with rising costs of just about everything. :yuk: except for wages.....
Lots of people will leave here and head to small areas like Havasu so it should fare better than some of you all think.

Havasu Cig
03-17-2006, 09:42 AM
If you are losing your home, then its a crash. :cry:
All my lender contacts know its coming, its been on its way for a while. I think inland areas that are cheaper will do alright for a while longer...but those overleveraged folks will be hit when they can't keep up with rising costs of just about everything. :yuk: except for wages.....
Lots of people will leave here and head to small areas like Havasu so it should fare better than some of you all think.
I think Havasu is overpriced though. When I see some places out there going for more per Sq.Ft. than San Diego I have to question the market. I have gained a lot of equity in my house out there, but I know the current value is probably going to drop a bit. Does not matter to me because I am not selling, but I would like to pick something else up if it drops enough.

BoatFloating
03-17-2006, 09:51 AM
What I find interesting is that CAR (Cal Assoc of Realtors) in their weekly emails is no longer listing the affordability index or appreciation rate. Makes you wonder??? Also my friend works for the unemployment office and has been seeing a large spike in the number of people in the mortgage and title industry that have been laid off. Not to mention the people I talk to that are in the industry.
Got this from another website. If anyone wants to address the points please do. (I hope some of you loan guys and realtors didn't over extend yourself.)
The mortgage industry, and specifically the subprime industry, has tried to implement the ‘outrun things with volume’ strategy. They kept rates low to stay competitive. The slashed profit per loan, and tried to drive volume. In the last year at the company I just left, we had 5 different comp plans. The ‘last’ comp plan was about ‘half’ of the first comp plan unless you were hitting the highest numbers which only a very few people were doing. To give you an idea, a rep used to make $4000 to $5000 for every million dollars worth of loans funded. Now, the typical rep is probably going to make $2000-$2500 for the same million dollars worth of loans funded. The problem is that the volume isn’t there for most people. I know reps there were doing 5-7 million per month consistently…and now they are barely doing 1.5 million. I know it is the ’slow’ time of the year to begin with, but I don’t see things picking up that much. Some of the reps that have been in the business for a while and that saved money, will be fine. Remember, most companies only had 3-5 reps for a region a few years ago. That grew to 15-25 reps as things were booming. The problem is that there isn’t the volume to pay that many reps the money they need to be paid to live. Look at my earlier example. 8-10 reps can all do ok when a territory is doing 30-50 million, not 10 million. (some companies will split a region into territories, that is why a territory will have less reps than a region).
What company did you work for? I work for Lime and we continue to hire reps and grow as others lay off and shrink. So far so good...

SummitKarl
03-17-2006, 10:28 AM
Exactly ... Was talking with Michele today, do not want to give up that 3rd bathroom nor the current view and such I have on Kiowa, would however like to have a very lenghty garage for boat+truck !!
I keep telling you....REGENCY!!!! 56ft deep RV height or 3car bay, maybe you might want to try a REGAL II this time, or have Michele show you the new Futura plan...I did it soley for Michele...only to she can list it.....I must really like her and John to give them, their very own design :) :)

Mandelon
03-17-2006, 10:38 AM
I think Havasu is overpriced though. When I see some places out there going for more per Sq.Ft. than San Diego I have to question the market. I have gained a lot of equity in my house out there, but I know the current value is probably going to drop a bit. Does not matter to me because I am not selling, but I would like to pick something else up if it drops enough.
That may be the case, I wouldn't doubt there could be some softening, but not a total crash. We haven't lost the jobs that we did last time around. Those overextended keep up with the Jones' folk will be corrected back into some more humble surroundings......and some from So Cal may go to Havasu....along with the retirees, will keep that market and others like it fairly robust. At least enough to keep the second home sellers from affecting the market too much. The frenzy should be over.....and the market ought to go back to a low simmer. :cool:
man--->realty prognosticator<----delon :cool:

SummitKarl
03-17-2006, 11:05 AM
That may be the case, I wouldn't doubt there could be some softening, but not a total crash. We haven't lost the jobs that we did last time around. Those overextended keep up with the Jones' folk will be corrected back into some more humble surroundings......and some from So Cal may go to Havasu....along with the retirees, will keep that market and others like it fairly robust. At least enough to keep the second home sellers from affecting the market too much. The frenzy should be over.....and the market ought to go back to a low simmer. :cool:
man--->realty prognosticator<----delon :cool:
"Low Simmer".............I am all for that........whew!!! just took my first 2 days off in a row.....in about 3yrs.....
I have been waiting to see what the Snow Bird Market did this year to see where things were going out here...and well Snow Bird Sales almost dried completely up this year as compared to last.....but overall count for me has remained about AVG. with 5-7 new homes per month coming across my desk. as far as new homes the market seems to be holding...with specs selling about 30 days after listing. not that there is a market change there just rather the practice of waiting till the home is complete prior to listing is now the norm.
The addition and remodel market is picking WAY UP!!!!!, I am currently trying to put together a construction crew for these smaller jobs, but it ain't easy...and getting the price down on the small jobs... is proving to be darn near impossible "AT THE MOMENT", hopefully by this summer I will have filtered through all the price gougers.......

Havasu Cig
03-17-2006, 11:09 AM
The snow bird market is not a suprise at all. Most of these people are on fixed incomes and can no longer afford to buy a home out there. The ones I have rented to are very nice people, but they are some of the cheapest people I have ever met. :cool:

INSman
03-17-2006, 03:01 PM
I keep telling you....REGENCY!!!! 56ft deep RV height or 3car bay, maybe you might want to try a REGAL II this time, or have Michele show you the new Futura plan...I did it soley for Michele...only to she can list it.....I must really like her and John to give them, their very own design :) :)
Can you send me that particular PDF again please ?? Is there a REGENCY model somewhere ???

truksnboats
03-17-2006, 03:49 PM
I am an Area Manager for Countrywide Sub prime division and see no slowing in purchase or refi's, but then again sub prime is a different animal. So Cal is totally different than the rest of the nation as well.

SummitKarl
03-17-2006, 04:48 PM
Can you send me that particular PDF again please ?? Is there a REGENCY model somewhere ???
yup there are 3 of them in the Osborn development
This is the flyer for the Osborn units, the actual one is 1.5' wider through the entrance way
http://www.***boat.com/image_center/data/520/2734regency.jpg

Havasu Cig
03-17-2006, 05:00 PM
I am an Area Manager for Countrywide Sub prime division and see no slowing in purchase or refi's, but then again sub prime is a different animal. So Cal is totally different than the rest of the nation as well.
One of my best friends does mostly sub prime loans out of a place in Riverside County and he is telling me a much different story. :rolleyes:

totenhosen
03-17-2006, 05:11 PM
I am an Area Manager for Countrywide Sub prime division and see no slowing in purchase or refi's, but then again sub prime is a different animal. So Cal is totally different than the rest of the nation as well.
Just look at what Angelo, the CEO of your company is saying.

totenhosen
03-17-2006, 05:14 PM
What company did you work for? I work for Lime and we continue to hire reps and grow as others lay off and shrink. So far so good...
I'm may have made my post misunderstood. I'm not a loan rep. I got the comments about the loan size being down from another forum. But I did make the comment about how CAR is no longer posting appreciation or affordability info anymore.
Well, whats the big deal about hiring reps when they are generally 100% commissioned?

Havasu Cig
03-17-2006, 05:18 PM
I'm may have made my post misunderstood. I'm not a loan rep. I got the comments about the loan size being down from another forum. But I did make the comment about how CAR is no longer posting appreciation or affordability info anymore.
Well, whats the big deal about hiring reps when they are generally 100% commissioned?
My friends other 1/2 is a rep and is looking to go somewhere else because her income has dropped about 50%. She thinks if she moves to another company with less reps she can make it back, but I think she needs to realize the market is changing.

totenhosen
03-17-2006, 05:24 PM
My friends other 1/2 is a rep and is looking to go somewhere else because her income has dropped about 50%. She thinks if she moves to another company with less reps she can make it back, but I think she needs to realize the market is changing.
Exactly! You think the majority of people are going to refinance if the rate is currently higher than what they have?

bigq
03-17-2006, 09:13 PM
My friends other 1/2 is a rep and is looking to go somewhere else because her income has dropped about 50%. She thinks if she moves to another company with less reps she can make it back, but I think she needs to realize the market is changing.
Send her over to Boatfloatings place.

locogringo
03-18-2006, 09:21 AM
People can think what they want, facts don't lie.
The affordability index in Calif. is now at 17%. The last two cycles started their "crash" (early 80 and 1993ish) at that same affordability index. When affordability index is this low and the DOM of homes on the MLS goes up, the obvious is starting to happen again.
Do a search on UHAUL site. From here to Dallas is roughly around $3200 if I remember correctly. From Dallas to here it is $300. The migration is also starting to happen. Reliable carriers has most of its business now from Calif. out. Facts don't lie.
Some more facts...
20-25% of listed properties in San Diego are vacant. Ouch.
The last two cycles, the foreclosures went up about 1000%. Due to the type of loans that are out there and the 80/20's and also the fact that $1.7 billion of all mortgages is going to have their first payment adjustment (from 5 years ago) experts expect the foreclosure rate to go up at least 2500% for this cycle.
Not preaching, just warning. A crash IS going to happen so be prepared if you are not.

buzzaro
03-18-2006, 09:45 AM
I think things have just slowed down to nomal, the building boom has been CRAZY!! for the last 2 yrs. it's kinda nice thats it has slowed down a little. I dont expect new home price's to go down much and they deffinetly wont be going up. just my $.02 :cool:
Agreed, no longer will flipping homes be a sure thing. Still will be a wise investment but now will become more of a long term investment as opposed to buying a home for 300k on the first release and selling it at the third release for 375k (below the home builders current going price). We'll also notice the size of the new homes being built become smaller. No longer will the standard tract home be 2500 sq ft on the starter model, itll be a more realistic 1300-1500 or so. So you might see new home prices drop but its going to be for much less house. I dont think anyones gonna get turned upside down in their mortgages but it will make moving up to a larger home much more difficult. I think well start to see reinvestment in the stock market as a result of the home boom slowing. Also should become a good time to get a decent deal on a rental house.

wsuwrhr
03-18-2006, 10:08 AM
Also should become a good time to get a decent deal on a rental house.
My next idea.
I want to rent this house and move back to Upland.
My next idea after that, is to buy some dirt or a run down industrial space and move SB Products there.
Brian

wsuwrhr
03-18-2006, 10:21 AM
The house across from me became a flip. After being on the market for two months, it sold for DOUBLE what my house appraised for a year ago. I thought it would never sell for what they were looking to get. I couldn't believe it when the price was registered.
NO WAY is it worth that much.
I've been thinking it was going to crash a year before we bought this house(2001-02). We had to look a long time to find something that wasn't overvalued and be ready for the enevitable "adjustment."
Here was my thinking:
I thought I could stay here a couple years, when the market comes back down, take the equity out, buy a second home and turn this home into a rental.
What do you RE guru's think?
Brian

locogringo
03-18-2006, 07:49 PM
The house across from me became a flip. After being on the market for two months, it sold for DOUBLE what my house appraised for a year ago. I thought it would never sell for what they were looking to get. I couldn't believe it when the price was registered.
NO WAY is it worth that much.
I've been thinking it was going to crash a year before we bought this house(2001-02). We had to look a long time to find something that wasn't overvalued and be ready for the enevitable "adjustment."
Here was my thinking:
I thought I could stay here a couple years, when the market comes back down, take the equity out, buy a second home and turn this home into a rental.
What do you RE guru's think?
Brian
Brian;
Depends how u take out your equity. As a HELOC, as a complete refi with cash pull-out? Fixed or adjustable? For how long if adjustable before the rate changes? Weigh these options and if you can aford this factoring in a 10-12% interest rate, and can bear the market change, then go for it. There was a time in the 90's when trying to rent out a home was a hard prospect. When the affordability index becomes so low that most can't afford to live here, they would be hard pressed not to move out of state. Texas, Utah, Idaho and a few other states are seeing the California migration already.
Also, I wold lease-option out the home/homes you want to rent and not rent becasue this will protect you more but feel free to PM me if you have more qustions.
Daniel

bigq
03-18-2006, 10:29 PM
People can think what they want, facts don't lie.
The affordability index in Calif. is now at 17%. The last two cycles started their "crash" (early 80 and 1993ish) at that same affordability index. When affordability index is this low and the DOM of homes on the MLS goes up, the obvious is starting to happen again.
Do a search on UHAUL site. From here to Dallas is roughly around $3200 if I remember correctly. From Dallas to here it is $300. The migration is also starting to happen. Reliable carriers has most of its business now from Calif. out. Facts don't lie.
Some more facts...
20-25% of listed properties in San Diego are vacant. Ouch.
The last two cycles, the foreclosures went up about 1000%. Due to the type of loans that are out there and the 80/20's and also the fact that $1.7 billion of all mortgages is going to have their first payment adjustment (from 5 years ago) experts expect the foreclosure rate to go up at least 2500% for this cycle.
Not preaching, just warning. A crash IS going to happen so be prepared if you are not.
I stopped bothering people with the facts it doesn't matter to them. It is funny how people take numbers as hearsay. :rolleyes:

totenhosen
03-19-2006, 02:17 PM
I stopped bothering people with the facts it doesn't matter to them. It is funny how people take numbers as hearsay. :rolleyes:
Only when it is to their disadvantage. CAR was proudly displaying numbers about appreciation, low supply etc and telling everyone to buy now or forever be shut out of the market. Now that things have turned they are quiet and not talking about the numbers.

INSman
03-19-2006, 07:55 PM
yup there are 3 of them in the Osborn development
This is the flyer for the Osborn units, the actual one is 1.5' wider through the entrance way
http://www.***boat.com/image_center/data/520/2734regency.jpg
Only 2 bathrooms, NO BUENO !!! :mad:

bigq
03-19-2006, 10:54 PM
Only 2 bathrooms, NO BUENO !!! :mad:
Nice, but why don't you engineer out that gay ass wall meesing up the RV garage. I like the room layout.

INSman
03-20-2006, 07:37 AM
Nice, but why don't you engineer out that gay ass wall meesing up the RV garage. I like the room layout.
Yup, those walls make no sense to me.. Had to have one removed after closing escrow on my current house :yuk:

SummitKarl
03-20-2006, 07:54 AM
Nice, but why don't you engineer out that gay ass wall meesing up the RV garage. I like the room layout.
because it cost about an extra $5k & 3 wks (per address), just for the Calc's to prove to the city that it will stand up, it changes nothing to way it's constructed (blame game city Insurance proof), the wall can easily be removed for $400, after C.O.....so I am thinking of the best end cost to the customer :wink: yea it's a little extra hassle but I think it's worth a $4600 + (3wks of mortgage) savings to the customer. :cool:

SummitKarl
03-20-2006, 07:59 AM
Only 2 bathrooms, NO BUENO !!! :mad:
it's not like I can't add one in about 2 minutes :)

INSman
03-20-2006, 09:00 AM
it's not like I can't add one in about 2 minutes :)
How about some dirt for my backyard ??

INSman
03-20-2006, 05:05 PM
How about some dirt for my backyard ??
bump for SK !!

SummitKarl
03-20-2006, 05:18 PM
How about some dirt for my backyard ??
sorry more valuable than gold, your going to have to call mickey @ DNR or Chip @ Campbell, I think they are at $45 a truck load now

TrojanDan
03-20-2006, 06:41 PM
How about some dirt for my backyard ??
I have a hill of dirt behind my house in Havasu you can have. I've been wanting to put up a block wall but I need to get some dirt hauled off first. :cool:

INSman
03-20-2006, 07:12 PM
I have a hill of dirt behind my house in Havasu you can have. I've been wanting to put up a block wall but I need to get some dirt hauled off first. :cool:
TD
Can you give me some sort of idea how much dirt you want gone and how good the access to the property is ??

INSman
03-20-2006, 07:14 PM
sorry more valuable than gold, your going to have to call mickey @ DNR or Chip @ Campbell, I think they are at $45 a truck load now
Just get it done for me for crying out loud !!! Trojan Dan is offering it for free, just need someone to haul it over. Summit didn't grade out the back correctly :argue: :rollside:

locogringo
03-20-2006, 07:40 PM
feel free to haul off some dirt from my back also (back yard not "back")
Top of Kiowa and have been contemplating leveling off part of the hill in back also.
Just make sure it is done to code because there is a neighbor up to the left of our back yard...
lol...

SummitKarl
03-20-2006, 07:41 PM
Just get it done for me for crying out loud !!! Trojan Dan is offering it for free, just need someone to haul it over. Summit didn't grade out the back correctly :argue: :rollside:
what!!!! you mean the free stone/stucco mail box wasn't enough :rolleyes:
HUMM!!!! the words..............ON YOUR LEVEL LOT just came to mind :p :)
I don't own a GMC opps sorry, I mean "dump truck" :rollside:

INSman
03-20-2006, 09:40 PM
what!!!! you mean the free stone/stucco mail box wasn't enough :rolleyes:
HUMM!!!! the words..............ON YOUR LEVEL LOT just came to mind :p :)
I don't own a GMC opps sorry, I mean "dump truck" :rollside:
I am not kidding, the lot was level to begin with !! :hammerhea
The mailbox was nice, but need dirt now :)