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01-10-2003, 01:12 PM
EL NINO PROJECTED TO IMPROVE WINTER SNOWPACK
State still in drought, but Colorado River outlook optimistic
By Ann W. Hagerty
Over the last 48 hours, Lake Havasu City has received more than a quarter of an inch of rain. ThatÂ’s nearly 50 percent of the townÂ’s normal precipitation in January, and the month isnÂ’t even half over. Across the state, heavy snowfalls are covering the mountains as El Nino slowly moves into Arizona.
Yet it’ll be difficult — some would say unlikely — to recover from the state’s crippling drought in one winter.
“The drought in Arizona has been extreme for the past four years,” Michael Somerville, state conservationist for the United States Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service, said Thursday.
“Even if this winter’s snow pack is normal, roughly half of that water could be absorbed by dry soils. Much above-normal winter moisture will be necessary to produce normal runoff under these dry conditions,” Somerville said.
Somerville’s analysis focuses on Arizona’s mountains, which primarily fill reservoirs in the central part of the state. The NRCS forecasts that El Nino will affect southern Arizona the most. “I’m optimistic the El Nino storm track will bring abundant snowfall into the state later this month and in February. The long-range forecasts project a wetter winter than usual,” said Somerville. “By late spring, it will be clear whether or not the dry conditions will continue for another year.”
Although precipitation in 2003 may not pull the state out of the drought, the federal Bureau of Reclamation has a positive outlook on the Colorado RiverÂ’s water situation for the current year.
The inflow to the Colorado River could be as much as 73 percent of normal, given the amount of the current Rocky Mountain snow pack, said bureau public affairs specialist Colleen Dwyer. ThatÂ’s good news, since the inflow in 2002 was about 14 percent of normal.
Replenishing the water resources will take time. Reservoirs are depleted after several years of drawing heavily on the stored water. “It’s typical Mother Nature that we have to work with,” Dwyer said. “Within the context of how the river’s being operated and how we manage the water and store it, especially in times of drought the reservoirs are certainly working as they’re intended to.”
According to Dwyer, at this time last year lakes Powell, Mead, Mohave and Havasu were about 76 percent full. Currently, she said, theyÂ’re 62 percent full.
“Even though the reservoirs are certainly lower than they were last year, there’s still enough water to meet all the demands in the Lower Basin,” Dwyer said. “The system’s not full, but it’s working.”
Lake Havasu appears to be sitting pretty. Its location and the requirements of users who draw water from the lake, like the Central Arizona Project and Southern CaliforniaÂ’s Metropolitan Water District, mean the reservoir stays at a fairly consistent level.
“It has to remain at a certain level to make sure both those pumping stations work as well as there’s enough water for delivery,” said Dwyer. “As of [Tuesday], Havasu was 89 percent full.”
The bureau plans to hold the lakeÂ’s elevation at or just below 446 feet through February, which is normal for the winter. In most years, Lake HavasuÂ’s elevation ranges within a foot of 448 feet during the summer months, Dwyer said.
Below Parker Dam, the agency has lowered waterlines in the Lake Moovalya area by 10 feet to allow necessary maintenance work on some Colorado River Indian Tribes facilities. Dwyer expected the lower lake levels there to last until Jan. 18.
CaliforniaÂ’s controversy over Colorado River water wonÂ’t affect ArizonaÂ’s allotment, which is its normal amount of 2.8 million acre-feet. An acre-foot is enough water to cover an acre of land with a foot of water, equal to approximately 326,000 gallons.
Similarly, Dwyer said, regardless of drought conditions in the Upper Colorado River Basin, the area is required to release 8.23 million acre-feet of water to the Lower Colorado River Basin every year.
State still in drought, but Colorado River outlook optimistic
By Ann W. Hagerty
Over the last 48 hours, Lake Havasu City has received more than a quarter of an inch of rain. ThatÂ’s nearly 50 percent of the townÂ’s normal precipitation in January, and the month isnÂ’t even half over. Across the state, heavy snowfalls are covering the mountains as El Nino slowly moves into Arizona.
Yet it’ll be difficult — some would say unlikely — to recover from the state’s crippling drought in one winter.
“The drought in Arizona has been extreme for the past four years,” Michael Somerville, state conservationist for the United States Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service, said Thursday.
“Even if this winter’s snow pack is normal, roughly half of that water could be absorbed by dry soils. Much above-normal winter moisture will be necessary to produce normal runoff under these dry conditions,” Somerville said.
Somerville’s analysis focuses on Arizona’s mountains, which primarily fill reservoirs in the central part of the state. The NRCS forecasts that El Nino will affect southern Arizona the most. “I’m optimistic the El Nino storm track will bring abundant snowfall into the state later this month and in February. The long-range forecasts project a wetter winter than usual,” said Somerville. “By late spring, it will be clear whether or not the dry conditions will continue for another year.”
Although precipitation in 2003 may not pull the state out of the drought, the federal Bureau of Reclamation has a positive outlook on the Colorado RiverÂ’s water situation for the current year.
The inflow to the Colorado River could be as much as 73 percent of normal, given the amount of the current Rocky Mountain snow pack, said bureau public affairs specialist Colleen Dwyer. ThatÂ’s good news, since the inflow in 2002 was about 14 percent of normal.
Replenishing the water resources will take time. Reservoirs are depleted after several years of drawing heavily on the stored water. “It’s typical Mother Nature that we have to work with,” Dwyer said. “Within the context of how the river’s being operated and how we manage the water and store it, especially in times of drought the reservoirs are certainly working as they’re intended to.”
According to Dwyer, at this time last year lakes Powell, Mead, Mohave and Havasu were about 76 percent full. Currently, she said, theyÂ’re 62 percent full.
“Even though the reservoirs are certainly lower than they were last year, there’s still enough water to meet all the demands in the Lower Basin,” Dwyer said. “The system’s not full, but it’s working.”
Lake Havasu appears to be sitting pretty. Its location and the requirements of users who draw water from the lake, like the Central Arizona Project and Southern CaliforniaÂ’s Metropolitan Water District, mean the reservoir stays at a fairly consistent level.
“It has to remain at a certain level to make sure both those pumping stations work as well as there’s enough water for delivery,” said Dwyer. “As of [Tuesday], Havasu was 89 percent full.”
The bureau plans to hold the lakeÂ’s elevation at or just below 446 feet through February, which is normal for the winter. In most years, Lake HavasuÂ’s elevation ranges within a foot of 448 feet during the summer months, Dwyer said.
Below Parker Dam, the agency has lowered waterlines in the Lake Moovalya area by 10 feet to allow necessary maintenance work on some Colorado River Indian Tribes facilities. Dwyer expected the lower lake levels there to last until Jan. 18.
CaliforniaÂ’s controversy over Colorado River water wonÂ’t affect ArizonaÂ’s allotment, which is its normal amount of 2.8 million acre-feet. An acre-foot is enough water to cover an acre of land with a foot of water, equal to approximately 326,000 gallons.
Similarly, Dwyer said, regardless of drought conditions in the Upper Colorado River Basin, the area is required to release 8.23 million acre-feet of water to the Lower Colorado River Basin every year.