Time for the Naysayers to Eat Some Crow

[MagicMtnDan]

Wall Street surges after GDP report - Dow rallies 171, posting biggest rise in six months
NEW YORK - A solid reading on the health of the economy gave Wall Street some badly needed reassurance Thursday, sparking a spate of stock-buying that drove the Dow Jones industrial average to its biggest one-day gain in six months after five straight down days.
Before the open, the Commerce Department confirmed earlier estimates that gross domestic product, or GDP, a widely-followed barometer of the countryÂ’s overall economic health, grew at a solid 4.1 percent annual rate during the last quarter of 2003, meeting economistsÂ’ estimates.
“There was no downward revision to the GDP number and that’s really lighting a fire under this market,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market strategist at S.W. Bach, a retail brokerage in New York.
Cardillo added that he thinks the market is moving up from an oversold condition after a corrective phase that has lasted for about nine weeks, as a number of factors have weighed on the market, ranging from high stock valuations to fears about global terrorism.
Alfred E. Goldman, chief market strategist with A.G. Edwards Inc. in St. Louis, agreed.
“We think the correction has probably done its dastardly deed and the primary trend remains up,” Goldman said. “The outlook for the economy remains positive; the forecasts for corporate earnings are up ... I would advise people who are on the sidelines to do some selective buying.”
The Dow Jones industrials closed the day up 170.59 points, or 1.7 percent, posting its biggest percentage rise in six months after five days of losses. The broader Standard & PoorÂ’s 500-stock index finished 17.86 points higher, or up 1.6 percent, registering its biggest daily percentage gain since the beginning of October.
The technology-loaded Nasdaq composite index jumped 57.69 points, or 3 percent, seeing its biggest daily percentage gain in nine months after closing last Tuesday at a new 2004 low. The index has born the brunt of the market's recent decline, and is rebounding more sharply than the Dow average, analyst said.
Buyers snapped up shares in trampled-down sectors. Semiconductor shares rallied, sending the Philadelphia Stock ExchangeÂ’s semiconductor index up nearly 4 percent and lifting other technology stocks, after some positive earnings news in the sector. Airline stocks also rebounded strongly, helped by falling crude oil prices.

[Blown 472]

Ya.

[25 Eagle]

Short covering...economy still sucks and alot of jobs are leaving. If you believe these numbers to be the total truth remember the Easter bunny is right around the corner.

[welk2party]

It seems like we are no better off today than we were just a couple of years ago.

[sorry dog]

Airline stocks also rebounded strongly, helped by falling crude oil prices.
Huh?? Who is writing this crap.
Economy may seem better but if the inflationary trends continue, it's gonna keep taking a while.
We have been notified by all our rebar suppliers that steel prices have jumped over 50% and all future purchase orders will have a surcharge reflecting this price increase.
So go ahead and add a few percent for all concrete structures.
I'm betting the surcharges for fuel for shipping and over the road equipment services will be in the mail some time this summer.
Our fuel costs for pickups has increased $1000 a month over last year (same number of trucks).
I'm not saying that it is all gloom and doom but that money has got to come from somewhere...and most of that will be in higher bids-- the rest will probably come from the raises we never get...

[Mandelon]

Oh. From the thread title I though maybe you had bought a boat. :D

[AleAlchemist]

Common if your waiting for a boom like 98 99 your shitin your self cause that only comes around every ten years,
It comes in waves. We cant stay on top forever. We're recovering now and well be fine in two years.
wasn't 87 88 also really productive years followed by slow and recesion?:rolleyes:
ok not so much reccesion but ****, everyone keep making that chedda and use it dont just save it. if everyone keeps the $$ rolling we'll hit our next boom in five years.
Just keep Truckin Baby!:D

[SoCalOffshore]

Yep. I have been saying it all the time. GDP growth 3.5% - 4.0%, long term rates trend up 50 basis points (0.5%) over the next year, Greenspan won't raise rates untill after the election or till early next year, increased corporate profits and continued week dollar. Of course it can all change in a moment. :D

[AleAlchemist]

Originally posted by SoCalOffshore
Yep. I have been saying it all the time. GDP growth 3.5% - 4.0%, long term rates trend up 50 basis points (0.5%) over the next year, Greenspan won't raise rates untill after the election or till early next year, increased corporate profits and continued week dollar. Of course it can all change in a moment. :D
Nice safe prediction, Ill buy it.:D :cool:

[gigamurph]

Looks like bullshit! Reads like bullshit! Sounds like bullshit! Smells like bullshit! MUST BE BULLSHIT! If one more Bush-pushin' clown tells me how great the economy is doin' and how bright the future looks, I'm votin' for Saddam in 2004! Your dollar is still in the crapper (I don't count the "Greenspan 5-min. Band-Aid" fixes or the "Republican Rose-Colored Glasses" edits or the "Sure It Tastes Like Shit, But We're Right" bravado), jobs that are bein' "created wouldn't support a homeless person, much less a family; medical benefits are disappearin' faster than the buffalo did in the 1800s; housing cost is at an all-time high (but the interest rates are down; BIG DEAL! Housing costs have increased an average of 30-50% in the Inland Empire since Jan. 1!); many industries statin' "No raises!" for 2004 ; and so on; and so on; etc., etc. Ya know, I've been known to eat crow once in awhile; but I sure as hell don't like the way this administration is cookin' it! Come to think of it, I don't much like Republican cookin' at all! Never have faired well durin' a Republican administration; don't ever expect too! :yuk:
.....and don't ask me where my info comes from, because it's all from personal experience !

[Phil Deez Knutts]

I refuse to participate in a recession.
gigamurph = dumbass

[gigamurph]

Originally posted by Phil Deez Knutts
I refuse to participate in a recession.
gigamurph = dumbass I'm a dumbass because.....? All the things that I cited have occorred in the past three years in and around my area; some to me, some to my family; and some to my friends. I refuse to to follow the herd when the herd is headin' for a cliff! Big deal! So what!:yuk:

[HighRoller]

Gigamurph, this may be a bitter pill to swallow but there's a direct link between what you just spouted and what is happening to you. Why don't you go out and get some good, objective facts on the economy from a lot of different reputable sources. Then come back and tell us again how bad it is. As long as you continue to listen to Dan Rather and your Aunt Selma tell you how bad the economy is you'll suffer the consequences. Are you going to tell us the Stock Market sucks too? Retailers are suffering? Go ahead, I can refute all of it with FACTS, not what my sister's boyfriend told me after trying to find a job for a week. I somehow managed to find a good paying job in a state with arguably the worst economy in the nation, so how bad could it be? As long as there are people like you out there I guess the naysayers will always have an audience. Oh, by the way. Have you tried to get a parking spot at Wal-Mart lately? I guess the lot's so full because all the unemployed people ran out of gas and had to leave their cars there, right?

[manuel]

"What is a John Kerry fan"
A teacher in a small Vermont town asks her class
how many of them are John Kerry fans. Not really knowing what a John
Kerry fan is, but wanting to be liked by the teacher, all the kids raise
their hands except one boy. The teacher asks Johnny
why he has decided to be different.
Johnny says, "I'm not a John Kerry fan."
The teacher says, "Why aren't you a John Kerry fan?"
Johnny says, "I'm a George Bush fan."
The teacher asks why he's a George Bush fan.
The boy says, "Well, my mom's a George Bush fan
and my dad's a George Bush
fan, so I'm a George Bush fan!"
The teacher is kind of angry, because this is
Vermont, so she asks, "What if
your mom was a moron and your dad was an idiot,
what would that make you?"
Johnny says, "That would make me a John Kerry fan!"

[SoCalOffshore]

I barely recognize the Inland Empire when I drive through it. Drive down the 71 Fwy and see what use to be cow fields and is now civalization. With housing prices up so much, I believe that helps homeowners and makes them money. I wouldn't think they would be upset with making soo much money. I know I am not. If you don't own a home yet, then it could be discouraging.

[Phil Deez Knutts]

Originally posted by gigamurph
housing cost is at an all-time high (but the interest rates are down; BIG DEAL! Housing costs have increased an average of 30-50% in the Inland Empire since Jan. 1!);
Major Dumbass statement. Guess what...all these homeowners have enjoyed this increase. Perhaps if you are buying a house, it might be tough...but you are a minority - as houses are selling like crazy - I guess all these buyers are using monopoly money??
Why don't you move out to Brawley or Yuma, and then you can find something else to complain about.
Gigamurph - you are part of the problem, not the solution. No matter what happens, you will find something to whine about. I could give you all sorts of options to improve what you are doing, but it is pretty obvious, by the above statement, that you will look for the bad.
Gigamurph looks at a glass of water half filled and thinks:
Who drank half my glass of water???

[Jordy]

Originally posted by Mandelon
Oh. From the thread title I though maybe you had bought a boat. :D
:D :D :D

[gigamurph]

http://www.simplifiedsigns.org/yawn.jpg
I'm not whining. I'm stating facts that are happening around me; not what's being spoon-fed to me.My retired Mother's Social Security benefits being cut while while her payments increase and her rent doubling is fact. Myself having got no raise in 4 years is a fact. My wife's medical benefits being cut by 1/3 and her premiums near doubling, that's a fact. Now, I'm smart enough to know that one man is not responsible for anyones successes or failures. Enough said; because I find the "I got mine, screw the rest!" attitude being exuded here is contrary to what I like about these boards. Then again.....

[Mandelon]

Houses in the hood here in SD are $350K now. Places you don't want to go after dark.......
RD you can usually borrow 4 times your gross income for a home purchase if I remember right from my banking days....that puts a 400K home in range if you have both halves of the couple working along with some down payment. Just not much $$$ left for a boat.....
But the prices are getting ridiculous I agree. The only economy issues we have are how our costs have gone up for insurance and gas. But we just raise our prices and pass the costs along.

[Phil Deez Knutts]

Originally posted by RiverDave
Kinda caught my eye.. I'm thinking they must be using monopoly money or something becuase **** if I know how anyone (that doesn't already own a home) can afford a house these days?
RD
Sounds like you hang around abunch of broke people??
Actually, most people who don't own a home don't really understand what kind of home they can afford. They have no idea that with interest rates as low as they are that someone who could only afford a 150K home 7 years ago at 9% can now afford a 400k home at 5%.
If you pay 1K/mo in rent, you can usually afford a $1,800 house payment (due to the tax write-off).
My neighbor just refi'd his house on an interest only loan with a payment of $1,000/mo on a $250K mortgage. Interest only is the way to go, especially with the market booming, because the equity growth due to market forces far outweigh any equity gained through payment of principle (atleast in the first half of the mortgage - and even then there is exceptions).
Almost anyone can own a home these days with 0 down and 10/10/80 or 5/15/80 or 20/80 and FHA and first time buyer programs. If you have roommates, then buy a house!! Buy the house yourself and then charge normal rent! Many times you can buy a 3 or 4 bedroom house and rent out 2 rooms that will almost cover the mortgage payment. Now, the half empty crowd will complain about renters and what if this and that.....if you want to get ahead - you have to do what is needed - or you can just blame Bush for all your problems.

[Lightning]

Originally posted by Mandelon
Oh. From the thread title I though maybe you had bought a boat. :D
That's exactly what I thought.
I'm going to start calling Magic Mountain Dan, "Associated Press Dan" - he's always posting the news.
As far as home ownership is concerned, if you think you can't afford one or want to know more about how to afford one, talk to an advisor who you can trust. Don't just assume they are expensive and that you will never be able buy.

[Slick]

Originally posted by sorry dog
Huh?? Who is writing this crap.
We have been notified by all our rebar suppliers that steel prices have jumped over 50% and all future purchase orders will have a surcharge reflecting this price increase.
So go ahead and add a few percent for all concrete structures.
I'm betting the surcharges for fuel for shipping and over the road equipment services will be in the mail some time this summer.
Our fuel costs for pickups has increased $1000 a month over last year (same number of trucks).
Sorry Dog,
Raw steel itself is in short supply, not just rebar but nails and everything else. Word on the street is the Chinese have used all their current available resources and are buying everything they can get their hands on thus driving the cost on domestic steel up.

[Lightning]

Originally posted by Slick
Sorry Dog,
Raw steel itself is in short supply, not just rebar but nails and everything else. Word on the street is the Chinese have used all their current available resources and are buying everything they can get their hands on thus driving the cost on domestic steel up.
Note to self, invest in China and steel companies.

[Phil Deez Knutts]

Originally posted by RiverDave
I think a more accurate statement would be
Sounds like your a broke person
Most of my friends actually do "ok." ;)
RD
You caught that??:D
Not what I meant, but Fair Enough:cool:
Still, most people can afford ahome and just don't know it. Although home ownership is too risky for some - they would rather take the risk free way to lose their money through rent.

[Mrs. Restless22]

Try the average cost of a home in San Mateo county being 650K for frikin dump fixer upper....
Now whos complaining? :rolleyes:

[RIPPINGNOLEGSKROKER]

The price of poker has gone up this year.
rebar has gone from $18cwt to $30cwt
cement has gone up $5.00 ton
Steel 5-28%
Comp/general liability May 1st????
Still voting Bush

[Blown 472]

Originally posted by Mrs. Restless22
Try the average cost of a home in San Mateo county being 650K for frikin dump fixer upper....
Now whos complaining? :rolleyes:
Ok, thats just dumb to pay that.

[ROZ]

Originally posted by gigamurph
Come to think of it, I don't much like Republican cookin' at all!
What, you don't like Tri-tip? :D

[HavasuDreamin']

Originally posted by Phil Deez Knutts
Interest only is the way to go, especially with the market booming, because the equity growth due to market forces far outweigh any equity gained through payment of principle (atleast in the first half of the mortgage - and even then there is exceptions).
Almost anyone can own a home these days with 0 down and 10/10/80 or 5/15/80 or 20/80 and FHA and first time buyer programs.
You are correct for the short term, with appreciation as strong as it is, get in and get out if you can. Just hope that you don't catch the market when it is about to turn like it did in the late 80's early 90's. Then you are in a situation you can't get out of. No equity put down up front, no equity being paid down through a mortgage, sales commissions if and when you do sell, falling home prices, etc. = Bankruptcy.
Indiana is a completely different market than So. Cal........but the principals are the same. Indiana is near the tops in the nation in foreclosures? $0 down financing, ARM Financing, Interest Only Loans to people (young kids, etc) who are stretching to begin with. Boom there is a glitch in the economy (heavily mfg. base out here) and the next thing you know ..........foreclosure. There are risks. I am a big proponent of the 15-year mortgage. Your payment increases a little (less than you would think) and you pay down principal quickly..........right off the bat.
HD

[gigamurph]

Originally posted by ROZ
What, you don't like Tri-tip? :D Why I oughtta.....:D Roz, you've met me! I think you can tell that there isn't much of any thing that's cooked that I don't like!.....and some of it that's not cooked doesn't have much of a chance either! Sorry about the generalization. I got caught up in a moment there! I like everybody! Well, most everybody! Well, some of ya! Hell; who are you people?:p

[Essex502]

One day of "bargain hunters" jumping back into the market doesn't mean the economy is healthy. Jobs are still down and dropping as offshore outsourcing is accellerating. Airlines are still in a major doledrum, oil is the costliest it has ever been and that will weigh-down the economy big time if the upward trend doesn't get addressed. The economy has major issues to be resolved yet.

[Scream]

Originally posted by gigamurph
Myself having got no raise in 4 years is a fact. My wife's medical benefits being cut by 1/3 and her premiums near doubling, that's a fact.
Personally gigamurph, I think you're placing blame in the wrong direction. The fact that you have'nt recieved a raise this year or last can be directly attributed to the mismanagement of the Workers Compensation Insurance debacle that had been orchestrated by the previous Democratic Governor for California, and Medical benefits vs Premiums are a result of Democratic legislation and unfettered litigation, not Republican doctrine...
Just a thought, but if you're interested in placing blame, at least nail the real culprits and not just the current administrations.
Scream

[mikev]

good site (http://members.cox.net/macallan_the/GW/GWBush1_Start.htm)

[Dave C]

Originally posted by Blown 472
Ok, thats just dumb to pay that.
Blown, you calling me dumb?
Mine= 1450 sq ft, $620,000. but at least I got a two car garage and mine is under 60 years old........:D :D

[Rev. Williams]

Originally posted by Phil Deez Knutts
Sounds like you hang around abunch of broke people??
Actually, most people who don't own a home don't really understand what kind of home they can afford. They have no idea that with interest rates as low as they are that someone who could only afford a 150K home 7 years ago at 9% can now afford a 400k home at 5%.
If you pay 1K/mo in rent, you can usually afford a $1,800 house payment (due to the tax write-off).
My neighbor just refi'd his house on an interest only loan with a payment of $1,000/mo on a $250K mortgage. Interest only is the way to go, especially with the market booming, because the equity growth due to market forces far outweigh any equity gained through payment of principle (atleast in the first half of the mortgage - and even then there is exceptions).
Almost anyone can own a home these days with 0 down and 10/10/80 or 5/15/80 or 20/80 and FHA and first time buyer programs. If you have roommates, then buy a house!! Buy the house yourself and then charge normal rent! Many times you can buy a 3 or 4 bedroom house and rent out 2 rooms that will almost cover the mortgage payment. Now, the half empty crowd will complain about renters and what if this and that.....if you want to get ahead - you have to do what is needed - or you can just blame Bush for all your problems.
It cracks me up to hear people pull these numbers out of there ass for a good arguement :D
Now to clearify:
150,000 @ 9% = $1,207 a month + (Tax & Ins) = $1,500 min.
400,000 @ 5% = $2,147 a month + (Tax & Ins) = $2,600 min.
BIG DIFFERENCE !!
And having been a Financial Analyst with Countrywide for the last 8 years and BOFA prior to that, I know a bit about the mortgage biz :D
Anyone playing with a ARM loan without a proper cap will be hurting soon. And once the rates turn all these over inflated home prices will drop and people will be making huge payments on homes that are worth far less then they paid.....
It's a hard call for any administration, Do we raise long term rates and shut the housing market down for a while and let the home owners stay where they're at for a while.... Or do we look into higher inflation to get the money directly from the consumers and leave rates low.... The money has to come from somewhere! It's all gonna happen soon, but which way it will go, I have now idea.
And as for the renting for 1K a month and affording $1,800 because of tax benifits. I'm call B.S on that. It's totally true you get a great tax break !! However, If a person is paying $1,000 for rent, that means they only have $1,000 a month extra for a housing payment. It doesn't matter what break they get at the end of the year if they can't make that payment each month.
I'm not looking to stir the pot here, I'm just throwing up the real world facts. Trust me, all the deals look great when you just talk about them. But in reallity they seldom come out as they did on the table at home. Hell it's like bench racing !! :D :D

[mickeyfinn]

The economy according to MICKEYFINN:
Not that it means anything to anyone but here is the take on the economy from the east coast. The economy is not as good as it was but is getting better, slowly. If current administration policies continue it will continue to get better. Most of the problems with todays economy were caused by the previous administration. Just as the actions they took didn't immediately cause the economy to tank, this administrations actions won't result in an immediate return to yesterdays numbers. Technology stocks were way overvalued and I think everyone has realized that for a long time, even before the dotcom bubble burst. If you are using the stock market as a gauge you do not look at the market over the 12 or 24 months. The only people who should be seriously looking at these numbers are people who have never invested and are considering whether or not to jump in (for long term gains)and people who have more money than they do brains and are into day trading. At least in Georgia if you are at least halfway competent in the field you are trying to work in and are willing to put in a full days work and actually show up 98% of the time you have agreed to, you will have a job and hold that job.
Now here is where I am bringing on the flames:
It has been my experience that probably 50% to 70% of the people today less than 30 years old consider themselves too good to work a less than desirable job when times are tough. When they do get a job they tend to have high rates of absenteeism and poor work habits. If most of these people spent as much time doing their job as they do whining about why they don't won't to do it they would be some of the best employees you could ask for. Seems they were born during the good times and had the silver spoon in their mouth and refuse to recognize the fact that the reason their parents had what they had was because they worked hard, invested money and spent money wisely and that they need to do the same. If you look at this portion of society you will find people people who spend 90 to 95 percent of their net income every year and invest none of it. They are piled high in debt to acheive the lifestyle they think they are ENTITLED to. So now I have come a full circle and am talking about what people believe they are ENTITLED too.
Sounds like a particular political parties beliefs who uses entitlement benefits to buy votes have cultivated a whole generation of people who will continue the trend for them and this is exactly what was intended to happen.
In short people just need to wake up and realize that nothing is free. An honest days work is still worth an honest wage we just have a lot of people who seem to have an aversion to this. If this doesn't change it doesn't matter what George Bush or Jerkoff Kerry or anyone else does the economy is going to begin going down the tube again.
okay...off soapbox.

[bigq]

Originally posted by Rev. Williams
It cracks me up to hear people pull these numbers out of there ass for a good arguement :D
Now to clearify:
150,000 @ 9% = $1,207 a month + (Tax & Ins) = $1,500 min.
400,000 @ 5% = $2,147 a month + (Tax & Ins) = $2,600 min.
BIG DIFFERENCE !!
not to mention if you don't have 80K laying around for the down payment add mortgage insurance. Of course you could 80/20, but it doesn't always make sense.