In 20 years oil will not have the power it has today, hydrogen fuel cells will be the mode of power. Sleep Well
Ahhhhh...The myth of alternatives....
Oil & Gas Alternatives:
The difficulty I encounter before I ever get to comparative analysis among technologies are the relationships which exist between these technologies & hydrocarbons.
When evaluating alternatives I immediately want to know a couple of basic things.
1) To what extent does relatively cheap hydrocarbon power today subsidize the alternative in question?
2) How do the expected rates of return from investing in alternatives compare to expected oil & gas depletion rates?
Until I answer these 2 basic questions, any comparisons are somewhat meaningless.
I would argue that:
1) Hydrocarbon energy massively subsidizes almost every aspect of our civilization to an extent which will render all known oil alternative technologies hopelessly expensive as oil prices rise.
2) Rapid depletion from half a century of MRE wells will outstrip any potential alternative energy candidates (or indeed any combination) ability to compensate in a meaningful way.
In other words, oil is just such a kick ass source of energy, even our most promising alternatives are an almost irrelevant consideration if we include oil's secret subsidy of these alternatives in the calculation.
(Secret subsidy) is no secret. Meaning oil is used to manufacuture these alternatives. Solar panels, hydrogen fuel cells
1) You need to roughly double the amount of available electricity to be able to generate enough hydrogen to use it for fuel in all the applications that oil is being used now. Doubling our electricity supply isn't trivial.
2) Substituting all the current transport for hydrogen-burning transport isn't trivial.
3) Making the infrastructure of hydrogen stations or equivalent isn't trivial.
It's not an energy source. It's an energy LOSER. We will not be able to run our current way of life off of hydrogen. We can't produce it cheaply. We can't get without expended large amounts of energy. Our cars don't run on it. We can't make plastic from it.
And even if we somehow figure out some wonderful new power source today, can we ramp it up to meet the anticipated depletion rates?
I have almost no doubt that every technology I mentioned will indeed become viable sources of energy. On a small scale for the wealthy few.
We have based our economy, food supply, transportation, and the whole shooting match on the unaudited assurances of a bunch of rug traders.
How messed up is that........