Better buy that house now, prices still going up...

[Mandelon]

If you are losing your home, then its a crash. :cry:
All my lender contacts know its coming, its been on its way for a while. I think inland areas that are cheaper will do alright for a while longer...but those overleveraged folks will be hit when they can't keep up with rising costs of just about everything. :yuk: except for wages.....
Lots of people will leave here and head to small areas like Havasu so it should fare better than some of you all think.

[Havasu Cig]

If you are losing your home, then its a crash. :cry:
All my lender contacts know its coming, its been on its way for a while. I think inland areas that are cheaper will do alright for a while longer...but those overleveraged folks will be hit when they can't keep up with rising costs of just about everything. :yuk: except for wages.....
Lots of people will leave here and head to small areas like Havasu so it should fare better than some of you all think.
I think Havasu is overpriced though. When I see some places out there going for more per Sq.Ft. than San Diego I have to question the market. I have gained a lot of equity in my house out there, but I know the current value is probably going to drop a bit. Does not matter to me because I am not selling, but I would like to pick something else up if it drops enough.

[BoatFloating]

What I find interesting is that CAR (Cal Assoc of Realtors) in their weekly emails is no longer listing the affordability index or appreciation rate. Makes you wonder??? Also my friend works for the unemployment office and has been seeing a large spike in the number of people in the mortgage and title industry that have been laid off. Not to mention the people I talk to that are in the industry.
Got this from another website. If anyone wants to address the points please do. (I hope some of you loan guys and realtors didn't over extend yourself.)
The mortgage industry, and specifically the subprime industry, has tried to implement the ‘outrun things with volume’ strategy. They kept rates low to stay competitive. The slashed profit per loan, and tried to drive volume. In the last year at the company I just left, we had 5 different comp plans. The ‘last’ comp plan was about ‘half’ of the first comp plan unless you were hitting the highest numbers which only a very few people were doing. To give you an idea, a rep used to make $4000 to $5000 for every million dollars worth of loans funded. Now, the typical rep is probably going to make $2000-$2500 for the same million dollars worth of loans funded. The problem is that the volume isn’t there for most people. I know reps there were doing 5-7 million per month consistently…and now they are barely doing 1.5 million. I know it is the ’slow’ time of the year to begin with, but I don’t see things picking up that much. Some of the reps that have been in the business for a while and that saved money, will be fine. Remember, most companies only had 3-5 reps for a region a few years ago. That grew to 15-25 reps as things were booming. The problem is that there isn’t the volume to pay that many reps the money they need to be paid to live. Look at my earlier example. 8-10 reps can all do ok when a territory is doing 30-50 million, not 10 million. (some companies will split a region into territories, that is why a territory will have less reps than a region).
What company did you work for? I work for Lime and we continue to hire reps and grow as others lay off and shrink. So far so good...

[SummitKarl]

Exactly ... Was talking with Michele today, do not want to give up that 3rd bathroom nor the current view and such I have on Kiowa, would however like to have a very lenghty garage for boat+truck !!
I keep telling you....REGENCY!!!! 56ft deep RV height or 3car bay, maybe you might want to try a REGAL II this time, or have Michele show you the new Futura plan...I did it soley for Michele...only to she can list it.....I must really like her and John to give them, their very own design

[Mandelon]

I think Havasu is overpriced though. When I see some places out there going for more per Sq.Ft. than San Diego I have to question the market. I have gained a lot of equity in my house out there, but I know the current value is probably going to drop a bit. Does not matter to me because I am not selling, but I would like to pick something else up if it drops enough.
That may be the case, I wouldn't doubt there could be some softening, but not a total crash. We haven't lost the jobs that we did last time around. Those overextended keep up with the Jones' folk will be corrected back into some more humble surroundings......and some from So Cal may go to Havasu....along with the retirees, will keep that market and others like it fairly robust. At least enough to keep the second home sellers from affecting the market too much. The frenzy should be over.....and the market ought to go back to a low simmer.
man--->realty prognosticator<----delon

[SummitKarl]

That may be the case, I wouldn't doubt there could be some softening, but not a total crash. We haven't lost the jobs that we did last time around. Those overextended keep up with the Jones' folk will be corrected back into some more humble surroundings......and some from So Cal may go to Havasu....along with the retirees, will keep that market and others like it fairly robust. At least enough to keep the second home sellers from affecting the market too much. The frenzy should be over.....and the market ought to go back to a low simmer.
man--->realty prognosticator<----delon
"Low Simmer".............I am all for that........whew!!! just took my first 2 days off in a row.....in about 3yrs.....
I have been waiting to see what the Snow Bird Market did this year to see where things were going out here...and well Snow Bird Sales almost dried completely up this year as compared to last.....but overall count for me has remained about AVG. with 5-7 new homes per month coming across my desk. as far as new homes the market seems to be holding...with specs selling about 30 days after listing. not that there is a market change there just rather the practice of waiting till the home is complete prior to listing is now the norm.
The addition and remodel market is picking WAY UP!!!!!, I am currently trying to put together a construction crew for these smaller jobs, but it ain't easy...and getting the price down on the small jobs... is proving to be darn near impossible "AT THE MOMENT", hopefully by this summer I will have filtered through all the price gougers.......

[Havasu Cig]

The snow bird market is not a suprise at all. Most of these people are on fixed incomes and can no longer afford to buy a home out there. The ones I have rented to are very nice people, but they are some of the cheapest people I have ever met.

[INSman]

I keep telling you....REGENCY!!!! 56ft deep RV height or 3car bay, maybe you might want to try a REGAL II this time, or have Michele show you the new Futura plan...I did it soley for Michele...only to she can list it.....I must really like her and John to give them, their very own design
Can you send me that particular PDF again please ?? Is there a REGENCY model somewhere ???

[truksnboats]

I am an Area Manager for Countrywide Sub prime division and see no slowing in purchase or refi's, but then again sub prime is a different animal. So Cal is totally different than the rest of the nation as well.

[SummitKarl]

Can you send me that particular PDF again please ?? Is there a REGENCY model somewhere ???
yup there are 3 of them in the Osborn development
This is the flyer for the Osborn units, the actual one is 1.5' wider through the entrance way
http://www.***boat.com/image_center/...734regency.jpg